By day, a specialist in crypto derivatives. By night… a bookmaker? FTX has just launched a unique futures contract that is as far from the crypto industry as it gets. The platform is offering users the chance to place bets on the result of the upcoming presidential election in Brazil. The bet will be on whether the current president, Jair Bolsonaro, will win re-election for a second mandate in 2022.
On 2nd October 2022, Brazilians will be summoned to the ballot booths to choose their future president. If none of the candidates secures more than 50% of the valid votes, a second round will take place on 30th October to decide the winner of the election. FTX’s new Bolsonaro 2022 future contract will expire at $1 if the current president is successful in his re-election campaign and at $0 should he lose. In the event that the election result is not announced before the end of 2022 or if the elections are annulled, FTX has decided that the forward contract will expire at $0. Now, with the basic description of the future contract out of the way, we can move on to talk about the latest trends in Bolsonaro’s road to re-election.
The most important thing to note is that Bolsonaro’s popularity has been in free fall since 2020. This is due to a myriad of factors. The most significant is his disastrous handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has swept across the Brazilian nation and resulted in a death toll of over 435,000. Compounding this is a rising unemployment rate, currently sitting at 14%, and the numerous corruption scandals that have defined his presidential term. The most up-to-date polls in the country show that 45% of Brazilians are unhappy with his administration, versus the 24% who continue to stick by Brazil’s current president. With a little over a year remaining to reverse these trends, support continues to swell around the prospective candidacy of Brazil’s former president, Lula da Silva, who was recently cleared of all charges after being falsely imprisoned as a result of the Lava Jato (car wash) investigation.
This is not FTX’s first rodeo when it comes to forward contracts and presidential elections. Last year, the crypto derivative exchange offered its users the chance to bet on the U.S. presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Success in this endeavour led FTX to immediately accept bets on the next election, set to take place in 2024. Currently trading at $0.085, the Trump 2024 forward contract has a daily trading volume of just $20 (~£14). On its website, FTX writes that the contract will expire at $1 if Trump is elected president and $0 if he fails to beat the Democrat candidate.
Meanwhile, the Bolsonaro contract is currently trading at $0.488, with a daily volume of around $3,000 (~£2,124). In theory, this should mean it is likely that Bolsonaro is re-elected. However, the price is subjected to the influence of supply and demand, in addition to capital costs. In any case, if you fancy trying something a little bit different, head over to FTX and put your money where your mouth is!
Salut! Je suis fan des cryptos, la géopolitique et faire les traductions activistes. Dans mon temps libre je suis un ornithologue amateur en herbe. Heureux de vous rencontrer ici sur CoinTribune pour vous tenir au courant des derniers nouvelles et commentaires.
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
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