Financial markets remain dependent on liquidity. While indices have regained significant valuation, markets are betting on a relaxation of interest rates.
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Author of various books, financial and economics editor for many websites, I have been forming a true passion for the analysis and study of markets and the economy.
Financial markets remain dependent on liquidity. While indices have regained significant valuation, markets are betting on a relaxation of interest rates.
Over the last 8 years, September has been the second-worst month in terms of bitcoin (BTC) performance. On average, bitcoin falls by 5% in September. Conversely, September is often a good opportunity. The end of the year often marks a powerful "Christmas effect", which is usually accompanied by a rise in cryptocurrency. But if studying the past sheds light on probabilities, it's worth looking at the indicators available on the bitcoin price.
Over the week of August 14, the bitcoin price fell by almost 12%. This turnaround was all the more dramatic as major thresholds that could have inspired long-term confidence were broken. The price of bitcoin fell below the $26,000 mark. It had stabilized above this level since March 2023. In our previous analysis in July, we pointed out that “the $26,000 area appears to be a major zone at present, and the absence of a recovery in volatility on traditional indices will probably determine the next move”.
It's not the first time that financial giants have made optimistic statements about bitcoin. But this time, the CEO of the world's largest asset management company openly declared his preference for bitcoin “over investing in gold, […] bitcoin is an international asset”. In the wake of this statement, bitcoin is on the verge of a bull market. As stock market indices consolidate, bitcoin is on its highest levels of the year. But is bitcoin “digital gold”? And what are the aims of this financial giant?
Is seasonality a myth? In this article, we will attempt to give an ideal overview of bitcoin's comparative behavior since 2015. We'll focus on monthly performance, effectively excluding shorter variations. The study of seasonality thus shows that October, February and July are generally the most reliable and best-performing months. Will this be the case in the coming months?