It’s Thursday, 9th September, bringing you another edition of Cointribune’s crypto analysis! Find out about everything that has already happened in the market and what to expect next in our new article. If you want to read the previous issue of the column, please follow the link. Here we go!
While conspiracists are blaming the recent Bitcoin crash on the secret government or Michael Saylor and his MicroStrategy, the rest of the market has to remember what it’s like to trade during a bearish trend.
BTC continues to test support and it doesn’t look like buyers now have the strength to defend that zone.
Many expected that after a global market dump like the one we saw on 7th September, the bulls, teamed up with the former bears who closed their positions, would gather their strength and quickly regain their losses, and then we could all make another run at $65,000. However, it looks like there aren’t too many left in the market willing to go long.
Many players prefer to stay out of the market in order to safely follow the situation and choose the side that will have the upper hand. If that proves to be the case, Bitcoin will return to the descending purple channel and fall all the way down to $35,000. The worst-case scenario would see it dive all the way to the bottom of the purple trading range to near $20,000.
We shouldn’t despair, though. Within the triangle marked on the chart, which also fits into the concept of a descending trading channel and even forms an additional support within it, the current drop doesn’t contradict the subsequent Bitcoin’s breakout from this pattern with the help of a massive pump. The only difference is that before that event, we will see a move towards the lower boundary of the triangle, which, judging by the RSI indicator on the daily timeframe signaling an oversold asset, will not last long.
It’s useless to deny that such a fall in BTC wasn’t an incident that could have been predicted from the charts. It was a deliberate mechanical action on the part of players with a large aggregate volume of the asset, who, for some personal reason, decided to sell their holdings on 7th September. Probably, they didn’t even suspect that amid “extreme greed”, Twitter users’ initiative to buy BTC, optimistic forecasts from market analysts and El Salvador’s adoption of the first cryptocurrency – the counter movement would be so weak that it wouldn’t be able to cover the volume sold by those bears. Otherwise, I’m positive, they would have divided their Bitcoins into many more small positions and sold them for much longer, but with much higher gains and minimal damage to the rest of the market.
However, maybe it was just that these mystery players needed to sell their BTC as quickly as possible.
On Twitter, the perception is spreading that the culprit behind the Bitcoin sell-off is Michael Saylor, who has been actively promoting the purchase of the first cryptocurrency all along. Some believe that his MicroStrategy, taking advantage of shadow banking services, sold out some of its BTC savings, causing the market to crash.
The theory is dubious, at least in view of the fact that, as far as I know, the aforementioned software and analytical services provider had little need for money. And what’s the point of selling BTC for $50,000 at the moment when everyone already believed that we will reach $100,000 by the end of the year? Of course, there are all kinds of situations in life. But then, what would prevent Seylor from selling BTC legally? Without signing up for the unnecessary risk of selling off his positions in the first cryptocurrency, bypassing the SEC. Taxes? Public opinion?
If the Bitcoin bull was afraid of taxes, he would not have posed himself and his company as ardent Bitcoin supporters to begin with, but would have bought some cryptocurrency officially, hyped and moved on with his life. He would keep the rest of his cryptocurrency holdings secret and wouldn’t need to report to the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
Public opinion doesn’t seem to be a problem either. Even if some of Saylor’s subscribers tried to accuse him of contradicting his words, it could all be put down to the need to raise funds for operating expenses or company expansion. Later, when all the problems would have been sorted out, the maximalist would have bought a good amount of BTC again and the negative sentiment in the community would have settled down by itself.
So, I personally believe that blaming MicroStrategy for the Black Tuesday events is a hasty decision not based on anything.
One way or another, the market dump has already happened. Looking for the people to blame now is a waste of time, especially since, purely technically, they did what they had every right to do. They locked in their BTC profits.
Right now, we need to decide which direction the first cryptocurrency will go next. Currently, BTC is trading near the $46,000 level, but it doesn’t look like the support will keep us at it for long.
The next important area will be in the $40,000 – $42,000 range. Even though globally the market is bullish now, judging by the sentiment of traders and investors, we are likely to see a prolonged decline. If the growth continues, the key levels that could cause problems will be $48,000 – $50,000.
Ethereum continues to insist on its independence from Bitcoin’s behaviour. The second most capitalised cryptocurrency is steadily recovering the positions lost on ‘Black Tuesday’. At the time of writing, ETH is trading above $3,400.
Of course, whether Ethereum wants it or not, ultimately it will be BTC’s will that guides it. If the first cryptocurrency continues to lose ground, the biggest altcoin will not be spared.
Yet while Bitcoin is stalling, ETH could be showing its character to the community and gradually climbing towards its latest high.
Bitcoin failed to show the will to win and didn’t try to continue recovering lost positions, so the crypto community reacted with a natural loss of optimism. While yesterday people were just doubtful about the future, today most of the players are confident that BTC should be expected to drop again.
I can’t blame them for that, because I myself don’t rule out that scenario. I can only say that even from this the market will eventually benefit.
As soon as the fear level approaches its maximum values, the market will start to cheer up by buying as usual. Because buying BTC when everyone is in doubt about its future is the best investment strategy there is. One of the most telling examples of how this tactic works is the last crypto winter, when the first cryptocurrency fell to values close to $3,000. Many pundits predicted its collapse and the media made headlines about the bursting of the bubble.
However, it was at that point when those who ended up making the most profit on the subsequent growth began to accumulate positions. When people were buying BTC at $20,000 and $30,000, these players already had a good volume bought at tens of times cheaper prices.
Generally speaking, even if you’re giving up hope, don’t lose sight of the opportunity in the meantime.
CoinMarketCap’s top ten altcoins are still struggling to rebound from the recent drawdown.
Against all the others, Solana pleasantly surprises. Since yesterday, it has not only significantly increased in price, but also knocked Ripple (XRP), famous for its confrontation with the SEC, off its position. Now the altcoin is eyeing the place of Tether (USDT).
SOL and XRP are far from the only swaps taking place in the CMC top ten. BNB and USDT have also swapped places several times in the past 24 hours. However, if this continues, within a couple of days Solana will easily overtake them both.
Algorand is the gainer of the day. This asset not only managed to grow while the rest of the market was falling, but also brought its users more than 38% profit in the past 24 hours.
IOTA becomes the loser of the new day among the top 100 cryptocurrencies according to CoinMarketCap. The asset lost around 9% in value during the day.
The cryptocurrency market is at a crossroads. It’s now being decided which direction Bitcoin will go, and hence which path the altcoins will take. Trading can be very risky now. Therefore, special attention should be paid to things like stop-loss orders and risk management.
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
|BITCOIN (BTCUSD) ₿||$60,863.41||4.1%|
|ETHEREUM (ETHUSD) Ξ||$4,257.91||8.53%|
|IMM. US (REIT)||$2,764.83||1.42%|
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