It’s Monday, 13th September, bringing you another edition of Cointribune’s crypto analysis! Find out about everything that has already happened in the market and what to expect next in our new article. If you want to read the previous issue of the column, please follow the link. Here we go!
It’s Monday and Bitcoin is on the verge of falling again, with the price of the first cryptocurrency likely to go even lower than the latest local low of $43,000. Disregarding the psychological level of $40,000, our next stop could well be the price range near $35,000. The buyers are not strong enough to make a new spurt and the initiative has completely passed into the bears’ hands.
The weekend turned green for BTC, although it was just a formality. In fact, the first cryptocurrency has barely changed in value, leading to a significant increase in the number of pessimists among the cryptocurrency enthusiasts. Few people seem to believe in Bitcoin’s recovery, but that doesn’t mean that crypto winter is on its way.
There are a few key areas on our path from which we can bounce off. The first is around $40,000, which is an important psychological level. The second one is $35,000, which is the support formed by the lower boundary of the triangle. The third is a zone near $30,000, which is the upper boundary of the descending broadening trading channel (yellow). The last one is $20,000, formed by the lower boundary of the descending purple trading range within this model.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $45,111. Yet you should keep in mind that this move is still fully in line with the overall bullish outlook.
We’re moving within a triangle, with a bullish wedge pattern being one of its important parts. Such declines not only do not contradict it, but rather complement it perfectly because one of the major factors of this formation is the accumulation, which occurs due to the alternating movement of the asset from the upper boundary of the triangle (resistance) to the lower (support) boundary and back in the conditions of a constantly narrowing trading range. This exact movement is driving the current BTC activity. In fact, we can speculate about a global trend change only once the first cryptocurrency moves below the $30,000 range. But that’s still a long way off.
Locally, BTC is now forming an accumulation, which is marked with a green rectangle on the chart. It’s highly likely that after this move is complete, the first cryptocurrency will try to make a breakout above resistance (upper red line). However, given the current, rather downbeat sentiment of retail players in the market, the outcome can be different. Bitcoin can move lower, towards the yellow support line. Although, halfway down this line there will be a support determined by the boundaries of the triangle (around $35,000).
Globally, BTC is still bullish. Even though pessimistic sentiment is already starting to spread around the community, there’s still nothing to worry about. Frankly, even in this moment of local uncertainty there’s still a good chance that Bitcoin will break through the resistance instead of making another round of lows dictated by the triangle. Since we’re taking a broader view, it will take time for such a move to develop.
The price of any asset always follows the volume. A key role is played by the so-called “whales”, people who hold large stakes in various assets. Because of their position, the whales can dictate their terms in the market, while retail traders and investors can only analyse market conditions and choose favourable trading points.
The point is that while retail players are actively selling assets and speculating that crypto winter is coming, the whales are buying up those very assets for next to nothing and very soon it will end up with the value of those coins soaring, due to a new wave of buying and positive news. We ourselves will start to push the price up, and those who were buying while others were selling will make the most of it.
Many retail traders and investors seriously misunderstand how the digital asset market works. They prefer to buy coins when they have already attracted the attention of the rest of the community and are actively growing in a wave of hype. However, this is actually the time to start thinking carefully about selling.
Buy when everyone else stops believing in growth and sell at times when other players start buying at any price. A good illustration of this advice is the recent BTC dump.
The Fear and Greed indicator has only just moved to the “extreme greed” zone as the market suddenly collapsed, leaving all bulls with losses. The same trick will be played when the market reaches a high degree of fear. Simply because that’s the only way to maximise benefits. By buying in fear, you can accumulate a decent amount of funds without risking that the price will rise sharply along with the cost of transactions. By selling high volume at “greed”, the whale maximises the benefits as the counter volume of demand allows him to make large sales at optimal prices.
It’s too early to lose faith in the cryptocurrency market. The most interesting developments are yet to come.
The second most capitalised cryptocurrency continues to decline. The reason is believed to be the lack of momentum to overcome the resistance marked by the white line, which is the upper boundary of the same-coloured trading channel.
If BTC continues to sink further, Ethereum will follow suit. Currently, the biggest altcoin is poised to return to the triangle marked on the chart, where a dump to the bottom of the pattern, near the $2,000 level, is possible.
However, the ETH price drop is an additional opportunity to add this asset to your portfolio. In hindsight, hardly anyone doubts that the price of the second cryptocurrency will definitely reach levels close to $10,000 within the current bull market turn or after the next rally kicks off.
The Fear and Greed Index has shifted strongly in a more positive direction. Of course, there is still fear in the market, but at this point it’s driven more by uncertainty than confidence that Bitcoin will fall and the entire market will follow.
The situation may still look frightening, but it’s commonplace in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin has fallen by tens of thousands of dollars many times, and far from always, such moves were harbingers of cryptocurrency winter.
Take advantage of the situation to expand to your own investment portfolio at the most affordable prices.
The top ten cryptocurrencies according to CoinMarketCap are still red. Solana (SOL) in particular stands out from the rest. The ambitious altcoin continues to plummet, risking stepping aside and letting Ripple (XRP) pass ahead at any moment. Yet I remain confident that SOL’s fall is just another opportunity to make good profits on the asset’s subsequent rise.
On the other hand, Solana’s popularity is often attributed to the demand in the NFT market. However, judging by the latest information, non-fungible tokens are no longer attracting users as much as they used to recently. The volume of sales of digital art items has begun to dwindle. Along with it, the potential of SOL may be drying up.
The market is the market. Even the disguised ghost hunter Charles Hoskinson has failed to add optimism to Cardano (ADA) holders, causing it to trade at a loss and potentially even allow Tether (USDT) to take its place in the ranking.
Binance Coin (BNB) is also falling. Even being the coin of the world’s most popular cryptocurrency exchange, it doesn’t help going against the Bitcoin sentiment.
Only Polkadot (DOT) managed to please its investors. The coin brought over 10% profit to its holders in 24 hours, and moved from tenth to eighth place in the CoinMarketCap ranking, overtaking Dogecoin (DOGE) and USD Coin (USDC).
Cosmos is the new day’s gainer. This asset not only ignores Bitcoin’s decline, but also brings its owners almost 20% profit in the last 24 hours.
The loser among the top 100 altcoins according to CoinMarketCap is Celo. The asset has already brought its users about 15% losses.
Judging by the chart, the decline is unlikely to stop anytime soon. The price is moving within the ascending trading channel, but is heading towards its corresponding support level.
The current situation is a challenging phase for both the cryptocurrency market and all players interested in future growth. Yet we should not be discouraged. No asset can grow indefinitely. Every fall is a stepping stone, a foundation for a new growth. So is the opportunity to make the maximum possible profit by expanding your own portfolio with coins that have lost in value.
Don’t forget about risk management!
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
|BITCOIN (BTCUSD) ₿||$63,011.23||3.45%|
|ETHEREUM (ETHUSD) Ξ||$4,210.36||3.14%|
|IMM. US (REIT)||$2,738.86||0.26%|
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