Anticipation Builds As Uptober Kicks Off For Bitcoin

As October approaches, the crypto market revives a now familiar mechanism : the “Uptober” effect. Behind this term that has become a seasonal mantra, a recurring data point intrigues analysts. Indeed, for several years, October has established itself as one of the most bullish months for bitcoin, often following a September with a slight rebound. This pattern, both statistical and psychological, shapes investors’ expectations and acts as a potential trigger in a context already marked by a progressive market recovery.

The recurrence of a bullish phenomenon

While a fractal model worries analysts, “Uptober” is not a marketing concept but a statistical observation that recurs year after year. Thus, every September closing in the green has historically been followed by a double-digit October on the bitcoin price.

In 2023, the +3.91 % increase in September preceded a spectacular jump of +28.52 % in October. In 2024, a +7.29 % performance in September was followed by a +10.76 % gain the next month.

This year, with an already estimated +8 % progression for September, market watchers are preparing for a similar scenario. Such consistency has convinced numerous analysts that markets anticipate and act according to this trend.

This phenomenon would be explained by a market dynamic where collective anticipation plays a driving role. The more actors expect an October increase, the more they adopt positions that reinforce this probability. Practically, the data reveals a recurring sequence :

• September 2023 : +3.91 %, +28.52 % in October 2023 ;
• September 2024 : +7.29 %, +10.76 % in October 2024 ;
• September 2025 (ongoing) : +8 % estimated, anticipation of a bullish Uptober.

It should be noted that these increases occur in a climate of strategic positioning, both by individuals and institutional investors, mechanically amplifying demand.

Thus, the prospect of a new Uptober fits into a market logic where investor expectations become drivers of price in their own right.

Halving, Fed, ETF : The Structural Catalysts of Uptober

Beyond historical cyclicality, this year’s Uptober fits into a context fundamentally different from its predecessors. The April 2024 halving, which halved the reward for mining specialists, caused a supply shock.

Historically, the year following a halving has always coincided with a period of strong growth. This was the case in 2017 and 2021, when bitcoin rose from a few thousand dollars to respectively $20,000 and nearly $69,000. This scarcity of newly issued BTC, combined with stable or even growing demand, creates a mechanical upward pressure on the asset’s price.

Furthermore, recent macroeconomic elements reinforce this dynamic. This month, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, a move interpreted as favorable to risky assets. The rate cut immediately propelled BTC to $118,000, highlighting the direct impact of monetary policy on the crypto market.

Finally, institutional enthusiasm has reached an unprecedented level. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a surge in assets under management in September, with record inflows in the first half of the month. These American ETFs now hold more than 1.3 million BTC, a volume that far exceeds current miner production. This imbalance between supply and institutional demand reinforces the hypothesis of a bullish structural imbalance, which could fully express itself during October.