Crypto Markets Face the Expiration of $27 Billion in Bitcoin and Ether Options

While traditional markets slow down between Christmas and New Year, the digital derivatives ecosystem is preparing to absorb a major technical shock. Indeed, this Friday will see the expiration of 27 billion dollars worth of options on Bitcoin and Ethereum, concentrated on the Deribit platform. A crypto version of Boxing Day, both feared and closely watched.

A massive expiration, but not chaotic

This deadline represents more than 50% of Deribit’s total open interest. In other words, a good portion of the risk accumulated over the year will disappear or reposition itself. In this type of configuration, it is not only the price that matters, but the very structure of the market.

In detail, 23.6 billion dollars of Bitcoin options and 3.8 billion on Ethereum mature. Each contract represents one BTC or one ETH. This simple figure is enough to measure the scale of the event. Yet, unlike last December, the extreme nervousness is not present.

The implied volatility has significantly decreased. Bitcoin’s DVOL, a key indicator of Deribit, hovers around 45%. This is far from the peaks observed at the end of November, when BTC briefly dropped towards 80,000 dollars. The market seems to have digested previous shocks. The stress has dissipated.

This calm is crucial. It suggests that the expiration could unfold in a more orderly manner, without panic selling or violent squeezes. A signal rarely trivial at this stage of the cycle.

The bullish signal behind Bitcoin and Ether numbers

One indicator sums up the current bias by itself. Indeed, the put-call ratio is 0.38. Concretely, for 100 call options open, only 38 put options remain. Traders have massively bet on the upside.

The majority of open positions focus on Bitcoin calls, with strike prices between 100,000 and 116,000 dollars. On the other side, the most popular bearish strike remains at 85,000 dollars. This asymmetry tells a clear story: the market is no longer hedging against a sharp crash, it anticipates a continuation.

This positioning is not anecdotal. It reflects confidence accumulated throughout the year, strengthened by the maturing of crypto derivative products and the gradual entry of more disciplined institutional players.

Approaching expirations, one concept always returns: the “maximum loss” price. For this expiration, it is around 96,000 dollars for Bitcoin, and 3,100 dollars for Ether. This is the level where option buyers would lose the most, while sellers, often institutions, would optimize their gains. What matters more is what happens afterward. Part of the put options between 70,000 and 85,000 dollars is already rolled over to January.