Crypto: SOL Surges Above $94, but the Rally Remains Fragile

Solana has just risen back above $94 after briefly surpassing $100 on Friday. The SOL crypto even touched $102 before pulling back. The movement is impressive, but a good part of the activity comes from derivatives products. The open interest now reaches $5.81 billion. Many positions thus remain open.

The Solana crypto finally rises back above $90

The SOL crypto has come a long way. The token was still trading around $74 before successively reclaiming several technical levels. This resistance had already accompanied Solana’s solid performance against the rest of the crypto market.

The price first recovered its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, located around $77 and $76. Then the 200-day moving average, near $81. The $83 level followed. Finally $90. The SOL crypto then accelerated to $102 before settling around $94. The increase exceeds 25% in one week.

The $90 level now counts in the other direction. A daily close above it would strengthen the rebound. Below this zone, the next monitored levels are around $83 then $79. The daily RSI also reaches 83.

Solana therefore enters an overbought zone after several rapid increase sessions. This doesn’t prevent an asset from continuing to rise. Corrections just become easier to trigger.

Futures move ten times faster than spot

The volumes tell a clear story. About $19.33 billion have been traded on Solana futures. Spot reaches only $1.88 billion. More than ten dollars thus go through derivatives for every dollar traded directly on the spot market.

Leverage takes a lot of space. Open interest reaches $5.81 billion. It measures the value of futures positions still open and gives an idea of the amount of capital committed to bets on SOL’s next movement.

The session has already caused damage. Liquidations reach about $108.35 million over 24 hours. Part of the rally comes from short sellers forced to close their positions as the price rises. The movement can quickly accelerate when several shorts get liquidated one after another.

Solana had already experienced this leverage increase earlier this year. Crypto ETFs and institutional products had accompanied an open interest of several billion dollars on SOL. This time, the spot market is not following at the same pace. That is the number to watch.

The $5.8 billion can push SOL in both directions

High open interest does not automatically mean a drop. If the price continues to rise, still open shorts may in turn be liquidated. Solana crypto would then have an additional engine. The problem arises if long positions become too numerous.

A rapid drop could trigger liquidations the other way and accelerate the correction. Funding rates will partly answer. If they remain slightly positive, nothing unusual for a rising market. A strong rise accompanied by ever higher open interest would signal more long positions piled on the same bet.

The spot market also counts. A lasting recovery of direct purchases would give more weight to passing the $90 mark. Institutional investors remain present, even if Solana ETFs have recently seen several sessions without new net inflows. For now, the SOL crypto holds above its former resistance. $94 on the counter. $5.81 billion in futures. The next movement will depend a lot on what breaks first.