Glassnode Flags XRP Pattern Linked To Past 68 % Crash

XRP is once again worrying analysts. A rare technical signal, identical to the one that preceded a 68 % drop in 2022, has just reappeared. As tensions return to the crypto market, this alert intensifies fears of a major pullback. At the same time, massive outflows from XRP ETFs increase pressure on Ripple’s crypto. Is history repeating itself?

The Return of a Worrying Fractal Signal

According to Glassnode data, XRP shows an on-chain structure strongly similar to that observed in February 2022, a period which preceded a 68 % drop in the crypto, while an expert had revealed its practical use cases.

This technical correlation relies on several key elements that fuel analysts’ concerns.

The common points between the current configuration and that of 2022 include :

• A rare fractal signal : the price and volume structure closely resembles the one that preceded a massive pullback from February to May 2022 ;

• The breach of critical levels : in 2022, the loss of the $0.78 support had forced XRP down to $0.30. Today, the $2 threshold plays a similar role ;

• High realized losses : each time XRP falls below $2 is accompanied by weekly losses of $500M to $1.2B, which fuels emotional pressure on investors ;

• A signal of imbalance between cohorts: long-term holders (6-12 months) see their purchase cost exceed that of new buyers, creating a risk of panic selling.

Glassnode highlights that psychological pressure on bullish buyers continues to rise. This tension strengthens as XRP fails to defend the $2 threshold, which has become a strategic marker of confidence or break.

By comparison, breaking the $0.55 level in May 2022 led to a 48 % drop within weeks. If XRP were to break below $2, several analysts anticipate a retreat to the $1.10 to $1.03 area, close to the 200-week moving average. This is precisely the pattern that occurred during the last major bear cycle.

ETF Flows and Institutional Pressure

Beyond chart considerations, recent movements in XRP ETFs are striking. On Tuesday, XRP ETFs recorded their second day of net outflows since their launch, with a total amount of $53.32M. This is the largest outflow since their market launch, even exceeding the $40M withdrawals recorded on January 7.

This dynamic reflects a change in institutional investors’ stance. The current context, marked by a general pullback in the crypto market, favors a cautious, even defensive, attitude. ETF net outflows are seen as a signal of gradual disengagement, which could weigh more on the price, especially if it continues over multiple sessions.

The XRP price is evolving under high tension, caught between a worrying technical signal and massive institutional withdrawals. If the $2 zone is permanently broken, the market could witness a new correction phase. Attention is focused on on-chain indicators and ETF flows to anticipate the next moves.