Prediction Markets Surge On War Fears

Military tensions in the Middle East are entering a critical phase. While Israel intensifies its strikes against Iran, prediction markets are heating up. The probability of a U.S. strike is climbing to unprecedented levels. This renewed volatility fuels fears of a regional flare-up, closely watched by investors, especially in the crypto ecosystem.

Polymarket flirts with 45 % before rising to 67 %

While the escalation could lead to a total war, on Polymarket, a blockchain platform specializing in prediction markets, an open wager anticipates a U.S. military strike against Iran before July 1st, 2025.

Here are the key points:

• Current 45 % probability for a U.S. armed intervention against Iran before July, according to Polymarket on June 17 ;
• A peak of 67 % recorded on June 18 ;
• Total volume traded on this market : $6.59 million, making it one of the platform’s most active.

These on-chain data show how much markets now factor geopolitical risk into their pricing, including within the blockchain ecosystem.

Diplomatic news is increasing concerns. Donald Trump left the G7 summit abruptly according to several sources to “directly handle the Iranian crisis”.

The U.S. president reportedly mentioned an immediate evacuation of Tehran and a plan potentially more comprehensive than a simple ceasefire, raising fears of a large-scale offensive strategy.

At the same time, the Chinese embassy in Tel Aviv is asking all Chinese nationals to leave Israel, a sign of a very serious escalation on the international stage.

Nuclear agreement, diplomatic meeting… other bets to follow

Alongside this troubling escalation, other prediction markets are fueling the debate. On Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated platform, a $52,999 wager reflects a 46 % probability that a nuclear deal will be signed between Washington and Tehran before the end of the year.

The same site estimates a 41 % chance that an American delegation will officially meet Iranian representatives before July.

Polymarket, meanwhile, offers a second related market with $1.62 million in volume, giving a 51 % probability of signing an official agreement on Iran’s nuclear program by December 31, 2025.

This scenario would only be validated by a joint public announcement from both governments, covering either civilian or military nuclear issues.

This rise in tensions revives the debate about the interplay between geopolitical events and market movements, as demonstrated by bitcoin’s drop after the initial Israeli strikes. While the U.S. military option remains uncertain, its growing probability in prediction markets sends a clear signal. Thus, the coming weeks will be closely watched by both analysts and investors, alert to a potential shift in the strategic configuration of the Middle East.