The CFTC Approves Polymarket’s Return to the U.S. Market

After three years of forced absence, Polymarket finally returns to the US market. The predictive betting platform, banned in 2022 for regulatory non-compliance, obtains the long-awaited authorization from the CFTC.

A rebirth orchestrated with masterful precision

Polymarket officially regains footing in the United States this Tuesday, thanks to an amended order from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The platform can now operate an intermediated exchange subject to the same requirements as federally regulated markets. A major milestone for this company founded in 2020, which had to shut down on its home market three years ago.

The 2022 ban stemmed from an accusation of operating an unregistered derivatives platform. But Polymarket did not remain idle. 

The strategic acquisition of QCX, a licensed contract market and clearinghouse, paved the way for this triumphant return. This move demonstrates a clear willingness: to play by American rules, even if it means paying a high price.

The numbers speak for themselves. The startup now targets a valuation between 12 and 15 billion dollars, a striking increase from 9 billion last October. 

This explosion is explained by an exceptional year marked by prestigious partnerships with Google Finance and the National Hockey League, not to mention the support of Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the NYSE.

CEO Shayne Coplan does not hide his ambition. In his statement, he praises “the constructive dialogue with the CFTC” while affirming Polymarket’s willingness to “continue to lead as a regulated American exchange”. 

A bold positioning that hints at the imminent launch of the “POLY token”, fueling speculation about a potential tokenization of the platform.

The CFTC changes course on prediction markets

The CFTC reversal deserves close attention. Historically cautious, the agency saw betting markets as mere academic curiosities, much like Iowa’s electronic markets. 

However, the tide has turned. Kalshi’s successful appeal, a direct competitor to Polymarket, regarding contracts linked to the 2024 US elections, marked a turning point.

Since then, the CFTC has adopted a “largely non-interventionist” approach to this emerging sector. This shift directly benefits Polymarket, which must still comply with strict requirements: enhanced surveillance systems, sophisticated clearing procedures, and increased regulatory reporting capabilities. 

The platform remains subject to the Commodity Exchange Act in full, a price to pay to regain the world’s most lucrative market.

This regulatory evolution comes at a pivotal moment. Polymarket and Kalshi recorded record volumes in September and October, proof that public appetite for these alternative financial instruments remains strong. 

The entry of Truth Social, former President Donald Trump’s media platform developing its own prediction market with Crypto.com, confirms the sector’s excitement.

In short, Polymarket’s return to the US symbolizes the maturing of the predictive betting sector. With clarified regulation and institutional players taking interest, this market could experience explosive growth.