Bitcoin: 92% of Holders in Profit as Warning Signs Mount

According to the latest on-chain data, 92% of the bitcoin supply is now in profit. A figure that attests to the strength of the market… but also marks a potentially delicate turning point. Historically, this level has preceded both rallies and sharp corrections. As euphoria gains ground, several indicators suggest the market could waver.

A bitcoin market largely in profit… for now

While many analysts wonder where bitcoin will stop, the percentage of the supply currently in profit has risen to 92% according to CryptoQuant data.

In other words, 92% of the circulating supply is held at a price lower than the current market price, placing a significant majority of investors in a profitable position.

This threshold is a historic reference. When reached in the past, it has often preceded extensions of bullish rallies. However, this setup is not without risk, as it also coincides with peaks of euphoria followed by massive profit-taking phases.

To better understand what this 92% profitability rate concretely means, here are some indicators:

• Many winning investors: the vast majority of current holders are in the green, reflecting broadly bullish market dynamics;

• A historical precedent of prolonged bull runs: this profitability level has been observed in previous bull market cycles, where the market continued to rise after surpassing 90%;

• An increased risk of selling: when too many investors are in profit, the risk of profit-taking mechanically increases;

• Directional uncertainty: the market could turn either way depending on psychological arbitrages between greed and caution.

Technical signals that crack bullish confidence

Behind this exceptional profitability, some structural indicators reveal a worrying slowdown. The Network Value to Metcalfe Ratio (NVM), which measures bitcoin’s valuation relative to its network activity, has dropped by 4.54%.

This decline suggests that the BTC price could move out of sync with the network fundamentals. Historically, such divergences have often preceded periods of stagnation or even pullbacks. This NVM decrease therefore indicates some disconnect between market euphoria and the reality of protocol usage.

Additionally, there is the sharp 42.86% drop in the Stock-to-Flow Ratio, a popular model intended to assess bitcoin scarcity by crossing circulating supply with issuance rate. Although criticized for years, mainly for its rigidity, this model still carries symbolic weight in crypto analysis.

Meanwhile, net inflows into exchanges reach +$39.13 million, reflecting potential selling pressure. At this point, the market seems stuck between conflicting signals, without a clear direction.

These technical elements, taken individually, are not enough to announce a sharp reversal. However, their convergence could reveal a weakening of bitcoin’s bullish momentum. The combination of a falling NVM, a weakened Stock-to-Flow, and strained liquidity shows that the current rally’s strength rests on a fragile foundation.