10x Research: Bitcoin Treasury NAVs Plunge, Marking the End of the “Financial Magic” Era

Net asset values (NAVs) in digital asset treasuries (DATs) have plunged, signaling the end of what some analysts call the “age of financial magic.” Despite the downturn, market experts believe the correction could create opportunities for informed investors to secure long-term positions in undervalued Bitcoin-linked companies.

Bitcoin Treasury Valuations Correct Sharply as “Paper Wealth” Era Ends

According to a report from 10x Research, the dramatic drop in NAVs marks a major shift in how Bitcoin treasury companies are valued. “The age of financial magic is ending for Bitcoin treasury companies,” the analysts wrote, noting that firms had created billions in “paper wealth” by issuing shares at prices far above the value of their actual Bitcoin holdings.

The report explains that this model effectively transferred value from retail investors—who bought shares at inflated premiums—to the companies, which accumulated real Bitcoin using the capital raised. Analysts noted that shareholders suffered billions in losses as executives converted inflated capital into real Bitcoin holdings.

Specifically, 10x Research used Metaplanet, the fourth-largest Bitcoin treasury firm, as a case study. The company’s market capitalization once stood at $8 billion, while holding just $1 billion in Bitcoin. Today, it has a market cap of $3.1 billion, backed by $3.3 billion in BTC—an adjustment that better reflects its underlying asset base.

MicroStrategy’s NAV Round-Trip Marks New Phase for Bitcoin Treasury Firms

A similar situation unfolded with Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy, whose net asset value surged during the Bitcoin boom but has since undergone a full “round-trip.” As retail-driven premiums evaporated, many shareholders found themselves with steep losses.

With NAVs now having fully round-tripped, retail investors have lost billions—and many likely lack the conviction to keep adding to their positions.

10x Research analysts

During the market hype, retail investors bought shares at prices two to seven times higher than the underlying Bitcoin value. With those premiums now gone, many investors face steep losses.

The normalization of NAVs, however, may represent an opportunity rather than a warning sign. With several DATs now trading near or below their Bitcoin value, analysts see potential for investors to gain exposure through equity positions that could offer additional upside from trading profits.

The market correction has filtered out weaker players, leaving behind firms with stronger balance sheets and more sustainable operations. These survivors are positioned to become a new generation of Bitcoin asset managers, focused on delivering steady returns beyond Bitcoin’s price performance.

Treasury Firms Poised to Shape Next Market Cycle, Says 10x Research

Meanwhile, 10x Research expects these firms to play a key role in shaping the next market cycle. The report noted that as Bitcoin continues to mature, well-capitalized digital asset treasury firms with strong trading strategies could still deliver solid returns and outperform the broader market.

Market data reflects the ongoing correction:

• MicroStrategy (MSTR) climbed 2% on Friday, closing at $289.87, marking a short-term rebound amid broader market weakness.
• Despite the uptick, the stock remains down 39% from its all-time high of $473.83, reached in November 2024, reflecting ongoing investor caution.
• Metaplanet (MTPLF) dropped 6.5% on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, ending the session at 402 yen ($2.67).
• The firm’s shares have plunged 79% since mid-June, when they peaked at 1,895 yen ($12.58), highlighting the depth of the correction across Bitcoin treasury firms.

Despite market headwinds, MicroStrategy continues to accumulate Bitcoin. The company recently added 220 BTC for $27.2 million at an average price of $123,561 per coin, bringing its total holdings to more than 640,000 BTC—underscoring its commitment to long-term Bitcoin exposure. At the time of writing, the OG coin is exchanging hands at $108,196 after a relatively flat trading session.