245K BTC Liquidated : What's Happening In Crypto ?

A sudden sale of 245,000 bitcoins by historic holders shakes the market, revealing an unexpected signal in an intense macroeconomic tension phase. These investors known for their solidity surprised even the most seasoned analysts. Is it a capitulation or a repositioning strategy? As monetary uncertainty persists and volatility settles in, on-chain indicators reveal a more nuanced reading.

Long-term holders shake the market : a capitulation signal ?

Last week, a record sale of 245,000 BTC was triggered by long-term holders (LTH), investors known for their strategic patience.

The event, recorded as the bitcoin price briefly dropped below $60,000, was described “as an exceptional daily distribution level relative to the current cycle” by Glassnode analysts.

This massive distribution marks an unprecedented peak since December 2024 and recalls similar episodes in 2019 and 2021, periods known to have preceded prolonged consolidations rather than a true bearish reversal.

Several important facts deserve highlighting:

• 245,000 BTC were sold in a single movement by the LTH, the strongest daily disengagement in over a year;
• This exit happened approaching a critical psychological level, just before the market rebounded above $70,000;
• Glassnode mentions a behavior typical of correction phases, where historic holders adjust their exposure;
• The selling episode takes place in a context where spot volumes have strongly increased, suggesting rapid absorption by opportunistic buyers.

Despite this sudden sale, total holder supply continued to grow, rising from 13.63 to 13.81 million BTC according to CryptoQuant. This evolution is explained by the very mechanism of LTH classification, which is based on crypto age.

Thus, while some tokens change hands, others reach the threshold of 155 days without movement, entering the LTH category. This phenomenon creates an illusion of stability or even growth, even amid heavy redistribution.

Macroeconomic factors

Beyond on-chain data, the evolution of the macroeconomic context largely influenced the observed dynamics. The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) of long-term holders, an indicator measuring the ratio between Bitcoin sale prices and purchase prices, crossed back above 1 earlier this week.

This configuration signals that the latest sales were made at a profit, contrasting with a previous period of realized losses. Such a return above SOPR=1 is often interpreted as a sign of consolidation.

Markets are now awaiting announcements this Wednesday on the consumer price index (CPI) in the United States. Monetary policy uncertainty remains strong, with an 82.2% probability according to CME FedWatch that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates in March.

In this tense context, 10-year Treasury yields, flirting with 4.22%, continue to put pressure on risk assets. The market also anticipates Kevin Warsh’s nomination to head the Fed, which could further toughen prospects for the crypto market.