$4.3B in Bitcoin Options Set to Expire This Friday

This Friday, the bitcoin market faces an extraordinary deadline: $4.3 billion worth of options expire. Such a shift could decide the short-term trajectory of BTC, suspended at the strategic threshold of $113,000. Its crossing or loss could offer buyers an unprecedented leverage… or give control back to sellers.

An options imbalance favoring buyers

While the crypto queen advances despite spot market caution, the September 12 Bitcoin options expiry reaches an exceptional amount of $4.3 billion, a rare situation in the crypto market, which alone concentrates a significant part of short-term risk.

At first glance, put options dominate the order book, with $2.35 billion versus $1.93 billion for call options. However, the recent push of the BTC price above $114,000, which started Thursday, has reversed the power balance.

More than $300 million in call options would be activated if Bitcoin stays above $113,000 until this Friday’s expiration, against less than $125 million in put options above the same level.

Here are the key points to remember about this major expiration:

• $4.3 billion BTC options expire today;

• If BTC stays above $113,000, there will be a net advantage of $175M for buyers;

• If BTC falls below $111,000, the $100M advantage will favor sellers;

• Deribit holds 75% of the options volume expiring this week, ahead of OKX (13%), Bybit and Binance (5% each).

This asymmetrical positioning creates significant technical pressure on prices, with volatility expected at the time of expiry.

A macroeconomic dynamic more uncertain than it seems

Beyond options, the overall economic environment weighs on bitcoin’s immediate future. BTC’s recent bullish rally coincided with a spectacular 36% rise in Oracle’s stock, a leader in AI infrastructure, boosted by the announcement of $455 billion in upcoming contracts, of which $300 billion would come from OpenAI, according to the Wall Street Journal.

However, this surge has raised doubts about the sustainability of the growth model of these tech giants. On social network X, user sam_mielke revealed a complex mechanism involving Oracle, Nvidia, and OpenAI, where massive investments in data centers are effectively converted into revenues through internal circuits. This observation raises questions about a possible accounting cycle that could conceal structural weaknesses.

https://twitter.com/sam_mielke/status/1965773353974677750

Meanwhile, the release of a negative revision of U.S. employment figures last Tuesday dealt a blow to investor confidence. Bank of America’s equity analyst, Ebrahim Poonawala, stated that “the rise in unemployment could deteriorate the credit quality of big banks”, while noting that credit losses remain so far trivial.

These mixed indicators on the American economy challenge the strength of bitcoin’s rebound, especially if liquidity flows were to contract or if a recession dampened investor morale.

In this context, the prospects of a BTC at $120,000 in the short term are heavily conditional. If the $113,000 threshold is maintained at expiry, a wave of technical buying could indeed trigger. However, bitcoin’s growing correlation with macroeconomic markets and mixed signals from major tech companies argue for prudence.