Bitcoin & Ethereum Face $4.7B Options Expiry: Crash Ahead?

This Friday, September 5, nearly $4.7 billion worth of options on Bitcoin and Ethereum expire, while technical indicators waver and the U.S. economy sends signals of slowdown. This crucial deadline could reshape the spot markets’ dynamics.

A $4.7 billion deadline under watch

While the crypto ecosystem starts September cautiously, the crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live points out that “the market is currently in a marked bearish trend”, approaching an event that could tip the fragile balance.

https://twitter.com/GreeksLive/status/1963621892029649259

This Friday, September 5, there are 30,500 Bitcoin options contracts, with a notional value of $3.4 billion, as well as 300,000 Ethereum options representing $1.3 billion, totalling $4.7 billion worth of options expiring in a single day.

Although this volume is lower than the last monthly expiry, its size remains sufficient to create strong tensions, especially in a non-directional and uncertainty-laden market.

Here are key technical elements to keep in mind for this deadline:

• The Bitcoin Put/Call Ratio: 1.38, indicating a majority of sell positions over buy positions;

• The “max pain” zone for BTC: $112,000, slightly above the current spot price. This price level would cause maximal losses to option holders;

• High Open Interest (OI) on BTC: $2.5 billion at strike price $140,000, $1.7 billion at $130,000, and $1.8 billion at $95,000;

• BTC Futures: total OI drops to $79.5 billion, according to CoinGlass, down from recent highs;

• The Ethereum Put/Call Ratio: more favorable to buyers at 0.78, with max pain identical to current resistance, around $4,400.

In summary, these on-chain data depict a market dominated by cautious, even defensive strategies, with positioning structures leaving little room for immediate optimism.

While the impact of this expiry remains uncertain, the option configuration highlights latent nervousness among traders. It is in this context, absent clear price direction, that this deadline could act as a catalyst for a larger movement, either up or down.

Rising volatility and a struggling macroeconomy: an explosive cocktail for September

Though technical data reveals some selling pressure, the overall climate surrounding this expiry heightens ambient tension.

“Short-term implied volatility of BTC rose to 40%, while ETH’s reached 70%”, reports Greeks Live.

This increase in IV (implied volatility) indicates the market expects significant upcoming price moves. The sharp pullback in U.S. crypto-related stocks, notably the Strategy series, triggered this volatility surge.

In this context, the Bitcoin price and Ethereum’s remain trapped in narrow channels, around $111,300 for BTC and $4,330 for ETH, without clear direction for nearly two weeks.

Adding to these technical signals is a notable deterioration of the U.S. macroeconomic climate. The Kobeissi Letter specifies that “in two weeks, the Fed will cut rates and blame a free-falling labor market”, as recent data show the U.S. now has more unemployed people than open jobs.

https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1963766577830228168

This factor reinforces overall uncertainty in financial markets, fueling increasingly complicated arbitrages on crypto derivatives products, including options expiring. September, historically a month of low volumes and reduced capital flows, only consolidates this fragile atmosphere.

Faced with this convergence of technical and macroeconomic factors, today’s expiry could be a tipping point or a reveal of market nervousness. If prices manage to stabilize beyond max pain levels, a temporary rebound remains conceivable. Otherwise, the combination of a deteriorated macroeconomic environment, rising volatility, and seasonally low liquidity could pave the way for a more marked correction.