4 Catalysts That Could Boost Bitcoin

Bitcoin has fallen more than 22 % in one month, casting doubt on its momentum. Yet, behind this pullback, several signals converge towards a possible return to the symbolic threshold of $112,000. While markets are restless, institutional and retail investors watch four key factors likely to revive the bullish trend. In a context of macroeconomic uncertainty and tension in derivative markets, the scenario of a rebound can no longer be ruled out.

The four levers of a potential rebound

While the flagship asset breaks above $86,000 despite a strong dollar, Bitcoin’s return beyond $112,000 could primarily rely on global inflationary dynamics and possible shifts in U.S. monetary policy.

A key indicator cited in the analysis is the iShares TIPS ETF, which tracks U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds. This asset has resumed its upward trajectory after testing a technical support at 110.50.

Four factors could give Bitcoin fresh momentum. These levers are macroeconomic, technical, and structural alike :

• Interest rates and monetary policy : the Federal Reserve maintaining benchmark rates above 3.5 % until 2026, anticipated by markets at 78 %, contributes to a low real interest rate environment that could favor adoption of alternative assets like Bitcoin ;

• Inflation and the bond market : the iShares TIPS Bond ETF, reflecting inflation expectations, shows a recovery. This could signal a favorable environment for the rise of risky assets ;

• A convergence with traditional markets : potential inclusion of Bitcoin-exposed companies in broader stock indices, especially via MSCI adjustments, could open the way to increased institutional investments;

• Asymmetry in derivative markets : the options market shows strong imbalance favoring put options, which Julius Baer calls an “excess of bearish hedging”. Correcting this asymmetry could trigger a bullish move, especially approaching the December expiry.

These signals, though still uncertain, reveal a favorable dynamic if the four factors converge.

A bullish scenario slowed by market caution

Beyond macroeconomic considerations, internal developments within the Bitcoin ecosystem could also play a decisive role in price dynamics.

One major uncertainty concerns the position of MSCI, one of the most followed indices by global passive funds. In October, MSCI launched a consultation among investors on the opportunity to exclude from its indices some companies heavily exposed to Bitcoin, notably Strategy (MSTR).

This decision, expected on January 15, 2026, could impact nearly $9 billion of passive exposure. Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of MSTR, reacted by stating: “Strategy is not a fund, nor a trust, nor a holding company. We are a publicly listed company with $500 million in software activity and a unique cash strategy”.

Meanwhile, the derivatives market signals a clear lack of trader confidence. Thus, put options on BTC currently trade with a 10 % premium compared to equivalent call options.

This imbalance is interpreted as persistent pressure on market sentiment. A easing of this imbalance towards a premium of 5 % or less would be necessary to consider a return of optimism. Added to this is the imminent expiration of $22.6 billion of BTC options scheduled for December 26, an event that could provoke significant volatility or serve as a catalyst for a new accumulation phase.

The Bitcoin price oscillates between macroeconomic uncertainty and hopes for a technical recovery. While signals remain mixed, the coming weeks will be decisive in assessing the solidity of a potential rebound towards $112,000. Caution remains warranted across the market.