Altcoin Season Never Ends; Most Traders Miss the Winners, Says Hayes

While many traders are waiting for the next altcoin season, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, presents a different perspective. He argues that altcoin season is not a future event to anticipate but a continuous cycle that never truly ends. The real challenge, Hayes believes, is spotting the assets already performing well, as many investors fail to recognize winners while the momentum is actively unfolding.

Missed Opportunities and the Reality of Altcoin Cycles

In a discussion with crypto influencer Kyle Chassé, Hayes highlighted that numerous traders complain about missing altcoin seasons, yet they often hold back when opportunities emerge. He pointed to previous cycles in 2017 and 2020 and more recent activity surrounding Hyperliquid (HYPE) in 2024 and 2025 as examples of when gains were accessible. Hyperliquid, he noted, entered the market around $2 to $3 and surged to nearly $60. Similarly, Solana experienced a sharp decline to roughly $7 in 2022 but recovered steadily in stages, reaching almost $300 earlier this year. At present, HYPE is trading at $24.69, while Solana sits at $126.

Hayes contends that the altcoin season has already taken place, but most traders did not participate because they were hesitant to commit capital or accept the associated risk. Each phase of the market introduces new assets that generate gains, requiring investors to adjust their strategies and focus on emerging opportunities. Those who cling to past cycles often conclude that an altcoin season never happened, simply because they did not hold the assets that actually appreciated.

Again, there’s been altcoin season. You just didn’t participate in it.

Arthur Hayes,

Diverging Expectations and Current Market Trends

Not all traders align with Hayes’ perspective. Some still anticipate a more conventional pattern in which price momentum begins with Bitcoin, spreads to Ethereum, and only then reaches smaller altcoins. Meanwhile, Maen Ftoui, CEO of CoinQuant, believes that established altcoins with exchange-traded fund exposure, including Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, are likely to attract significant investment during the next phase of altcoin gains.

Adding to this, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe observed on X that despite recent sharp corrections, the altcoin market’s upward trend remains intact. From a technical standpoint, the market continues to form higher lows, with altcoin market capitalization holding at a crucial support level. Van de Poppe expressed confidence that the market is in the process of establishing a bottom and anticipates further gains in the coming weeks.

Current Altcoin Market Snapshot

According to the latest data from BlockchainCenter.Net, the altcoin season index provides insight into the current market cycle;

• The index currently sits at 35, showing that a full altcoin season has not yet begun and the market is still in a transitional phase.
• It has been 85 days since the last recorded season, showing the market has been between cycles for nearly three months.
• Historically, the longest stretch without a season lasted 486 days, while the longest recorded altcoin season spanned 117 days.

In terms of daily performance, leading altcoins have seen modest gains over the past 24 hours: XRP rose 3.8%, Solana increased 0.4%, Ethereum gained 1%, and BNB moved up 0.5%. Smaller coins, however, experienced significant spikes. Canton (CC) jumped 31%, while Chiliz (CHZ) climbed 15%, placing both among the top gainers on CoinGecko during the same period.