Benjamin Cowen Predicts XRP Pullback Soon

While the crypto market oscillates between euphoria and uncertainty, XRP is the subject of a serious warning. According to analyst Benjamin Cowen, the crypto could experience one last drop before reaching its cycle peak. This analysis, based not on promises but on historical technical signals, calls for caution.

A Technical Pullback Before the Peak ?

In his latest podcast, Benjamin Cowen delivers a cautious but detailed technical analysis on XRP’s trajectory. According to him, the crypto could soon experience a correction before reaching its cycle peak, after a rebound at $3.27.

“XRP could return to test its bullish support zone, probably between $2.60 and $2.70”, he indicates. This scenario is modeled on previous bullish crypto cycles, where this type of pullback preceded a peak. For Cowen, the current setup suggests an imminent end of cycle, marked by rising tension in risk indicators.

Here are the key elements noted by the analyst to support this hypothesis :

• An expected test of the bullish support : XRP could fall back around $2.60 – $2.70, a historical support zone before a cycle peak ;

• XRP has drawn a bullish reversal pattern, although this is not yet reflected in its relative valuation ;

• Stagnation versus BTC : its valuation in Satoshis has remained unchanged since August 2021, Cowen notes, highlighting a lack of momentum against the market leader ;

• A risk indicator on alert : Cowen notes repeated spikes of this technical data in the 0.8–0.9 zone, a threshold beyond which previous rallies have failed ;

• Proximity to a peak : if this level crosses 0.9 and reaches 1.0, it will very likely signal the cycle peak, he warns.

This technical reading reveals a potentially overheated XRP market, where any excess optimism could precede a marked correction. For Cowen, timing is critical, and investors would do well to closely monitor these thresholds.

Between Bitcoin Domination and a Post-Cycle Scenario

Beyond technical thresholds, Benjamin Cowen broadens his reading to the macroeconomic environment of the crypto market. According to him, September could trigger a shift. “September often marks a rise in bitcoin dominance”, he warns.

This dynamic, already observed in the past, tends to cause a liquidity rotation from altcoins to bitcoin, thereby weakening the relative performance of cryptos like XRP in the short term.

Moreover, the improvement in XRP’s relative strength this year. Cowen acknowledges that this time the crypto managed to record “higher highs”, peaks higher than in 2020–2021, a positive signal.

However, he remains cautious. According to him, chasing overly ambitious price targets at cycle end would be risky. “If the risk indicator does not reach extreme levels by year-end, it is likely it won’t do so at all during this cycle,” he emphasizes. In other words, bullish potential would already be running out.

In the longer term, Cowen stresses a principle often overlooked by retail investors: the real performance of altcoins is measured in Satoshis, not dollars. He reminds that most altcoins end up bleeding against BTC, regardless of their USD volatility. This approach invites perspective on the gross gains displayed by some assets. As perspective, Cowen estimates a crash of 60 to 80 % similar to those in previous cycles could occur around 2026, once the cycle peak is reached.

Benjamin Cowen’s analysis offers a cautious and substantiated reading of XRP’s behavior, far from the sometimes excessive enthusiasm observed in bullish periods. It recalls the importance of managing expectations but also considering technical and structural indicators often ignored. Is a return to $4 still possible?