Binance sees potential Bitcoin rebound after US midterm elections

The US midterm elections could well provide a new breath to the crypto and stock markets, and give wings back to bitcoin. This is at least what Binance Research states in a report published this week. However, before reaching that point, the path remains littered with geopolitical pitfalls.

The US elections, a historic catalyst for Bitcoin

The US midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026, could play a key role for financial markets. According to a recent Binance Research report, these election cycles have historically marked the start of bullish phases for risky assets, including bitcoin and stocks.

The explanation is based on a simple factor: the disappearance of political uncertainty. During the months leading up to the vote, investors often adopt a cautious stance. However, once the results are known and the balance of Congress clarified, markets generally regain a more favorable climate for investments.

Historical data is revealing. Since 2013, the twelve months following midterm elections have produced on average:

• +19% for the S&P 500
• +54% for Bitcoin

This phenomenon fits into the logic of US macroeconomic cycles. When the political landscape becomes more predictable, liquidity returns to risky assets. In a context where Bitcoin is progressively establishing itself as an institutional asset, supported by ETFs, banks, and certain sovereign strategies, the impact could be even more pronounced.

Previous cycles also illustrate this pattern. Midterm years like 2014, 2018, or 2022 often recorded major corrections in the crypto market. Yet the following periods were marked by powerful recovery phases.

For Binance analysts, the year following the elections could thus become “the most favorable period of the cycle”.

Geopolitics and oil, the risks weighing on the market

In the short term, Bitcoin’s trajectory nevertheless depends on a more immediate factor: geopolitics. Tensions in the Middle East, involving notably the United States, Israel, and Iran, are currently fueling significant volatility in global markets.

The price of oil briefly reached $95 per barrel, after attacks targeting energy infrastructure in the region. Some Iranian officials even mention the possibility of a $200 barrel if military escalation continues.

This energy surge creates pressure on risky assets. Historically, when energy prices soar, investors favor traditional safe havens.

However, some players in the crypto sector see this situation as an opportunity. Gracy Chen, CEO of the Bitget platform, believes cryptos could benefit from an amplified effect if liquidity conditions stabilize.

According to her, Bitcoin’s high beta profile means its upside potential could surpass that of stocks once political uncertainty dissipates.

Meanwhile, bitcoin is holding its ground. It trades at $70,460 at the time of writing, caught in a consolidation zone where short-term liquidity flows dictate every movement.

Between political cycles and geopolitical tensions, the crypto market is navigating a pivotal period. The midterm elections could offer the catalyst investors are waiting for. If history repeats itself, bitcoin could enter a new bullish phase. But for now, it is still the barrel of oil that rules.