Bitcoin 24 To 66 Percent Below Theoretical Value Jan3 CEO Says

While gold trades near its historic highs, bitcoin remains in the background. This divergence draws the attention of some analysts. According to a recent analysis, the asset would appear undervalued today compared to the precious metal. A statistical gap which, in the past, has preceded marked market recovery phases. This signal revives the debate on the relative valuation of bitcoin against gold.

A statistical indicator suggests marked undervaluation

Analyst and CEO of Jan3, Samson Mow estimates that bitcoin would be between 24 % and 66 % below its theoretical value when compared to gold or the global money supply, while the bear market of the flagship asset is still ongoing. He points out that the asset is currently “undervalued” according to this metric.

The analysis is based on the Z-score of the bitcoin/gold ratio (BTC/XAU), an indicator measuring the deviation of the ratio from its historical average. The key points highlighted are as follows :

• The Z-score of the BTC/XAU ratio is currently negative, close to −2, a level historically associated with undervaluation phases ;

• In March 2020, during the COVID-19 shock, a comparable level had preceded a significant rally of bitcoin in the following months ;

• At the end of 2022, after the collapse of FTX, a similar signal was also observed before a marked market recovery.

These precedents are cited as examples where a significant statistical gap between bitcoin and gold was followed by a bullish phase. The indicator is not a prediction, but it reveals a measurable gap relative to the historical trends of the ratio between the two assets.

A market context dominated by gold dynamics

This interpretation comes as gold trades near its historic highs, driven by geopolitical tensions and the search for safe-haven assets. The total capitalization of the precious metal is estimated at about 30,600 billion dollars, compared to about 1,760 billion for bitcoin. The valuation gap therefore remains considerable between the two assets, often compared for their potential role as a store of value.

The analysis also points out that the current dynamic does not yet reflect a clear rally on bitcoin, despite the observed statistical signal. The Z-score indicates a deviation from the historical average, without constituting a guarantee of immediate reversal. The indicator is based on past correlations and on the relative evolution between two assets whose cycles may diverge depending on macroeconomic conditions.

The gap between bitcoin and gold thus revives a central debate : that of the relative valuation of safe-haven assets in the digital age. If historical precedents show that similar levels of undervaluation have been followed by marked recoveries, each cycle retains its specifics. Investors will therefore have to arbitrate between statistical reading and macroeconomic caution, in an environment where global liquidity, interest rates, and geopolitical tensions continue to influence capital flows.