Bitcoin: A historical indicator confirms the market improvement

The recent rise in bitcoin prices brings a technical signal that the market is closely watching. On September 22, the price crossed its 365-day simple moving average, around 80,900 dollars. This crossing comes after 310 days below this line, according to Ryan Horst and Joni Zhuleku, the founders of Altcoin Pro. Their study shows that this crossing preceded increases over several previous periods, while reminding them that this indicator does not guarantee a sustainable rise.

Bitcoin rises again above its 365-day average

The crossing observed on September 22 marks a notable change in the technical reading of the BTC market. In an email addressed to CoinDesk, Altcoin Pro states that Bitcoin has found its 365-day moving average for the first time in 310 days. For Ryan Horst and Joni Zhuleku, this return above the line creates a potential bullish signal.

The five previous cases studied by Altcoin Pro share an important common point. Each time, the price was higher twelve months after regaining its 365-day average. These situations followed at least 90 days spent below this average. However, the observed performances varied greatly, from about 59% to over 1,400%.

The 2012 case explains the maximum extent observed in this series. At that time, the market still considered bitcoin a marginal asset. Horst points out, however, that this model remains imperfect and does not constitute a guarantee. Two crossings failed when the analysis includes shorter periods below the average.

Moving averages give different signals

Altcoin Pro also gives an important place to the 200-day moving average. According to the founders, this reference provides a more advanced signal than the 365-day one. It had reached about 70,800 dollars, while bitcoin was about 19% above before its slight pullback of the previous 36 hours. The 365-day average remained, however, down and closer to the market price.

This difference comes from the pace at which each indicator integrates past prices. The 365-day average reacts more slowly to recent movements. The two analysts believe that the first indicator reflects the old data more than the second. The second reacts over three months, according to their explanation.

On September 8, another technical signal had already attracted the market’s attention. Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average had crossed above the 200-day one, forming a “golden cross.” However, CoinDesk had reminded us that this signal has a mixed record when used alone to anticipate a sustainable rise.

The market still has to confirm this technical change

Altcoin Pro nevertheless considers this crossover more constructive in the current context. Bitcoin had spent 293 days below its 200-day moving average before rising above it again. This duration remains shorter than the approximately 436 days spent below this threshold during the 2022-2023 bear market. This breakout therefore remains central to their analysis.

Historical data show, however, that technical indicators do not directly describe future prices. Moving averages are based only on past prices and measure a trend over a given period. They can therefore react with a delay when the market changes rapidly. This limitation explains why Horst and Zhuleku ask for confirmation.

The next test concerns bitcoin’s ability to maintain this level after the pullback. Horst described the September progress as encouraging while calling for its confirmation. The crossing thus brings an additional technical signal to the current market. Its evolution will now depend on how the price reacts around this average.

The crossing of the 365-day average thus marks an improvement in bitcoin’s technical signal, after 310 days below this reference. The historical precedents studied by Altcoin Pro show subsequent rises, but also failures. The next step is to assess if the BTC price maintains this threshold and progressively confirms the observed change.