Bitcoin: After a 7.59% drop, the trend remains bullish

Between October 5 and 8, the cryptocurrency market experienced a marked correction, causing bitcoin to fall by 7.59%. After hitting a low of 80,393 dollars, the price rebounded to around 82,800 dollars. Despite this recovery, several indicators urge investors to be cautious. Market tensions and flows to exchange platforms maintain uncertainties, while the overall trend remains upward.

Bitcoin: a correction that weakens the market in the short term

Bitcoin has retreated from a peak of 87,000 dollars before regaining some of the lost ground. This recovery indicates a return of buyers after several difficult sessions. However, the rebound is not yet enough to confirm the end of the correction. Investors must therefore monitor the next price moves.

According to CryptoQuant data, exchange flows changed between the start and end of the studied period. From October 7 to 9, platforms recorded outflows of 11,325 BTC. Over the entire period from October 3 to 9, outflows reached 7,520 BTC. These figures reflect significant movements, but their interpretation requires distinguishing daily flows from the overall balance.

Meanwhile, CoinNiel analyst notes several signs of caution. Funding rates have decreased and open interest has retreated compared to the beginning of the month. These changes suggest a shift in operators’ positioning in derivative markets. At the same time, negative spot ETF flows and the reduction of long positions have increased price pressure.

A stress index falling despite recent tensions

The bitcoin stress index measures the intensity of selling waves in the market. According to analyst Axel Adler Jr., this indicator peaked at a weekly high of 49.9 on October 7. A value between 40 and 55 indicates high tension among investors. However, the index has not exceeded the threshold of 55 in the past three months.

Major liquidations recorded on October 7 and 8 in futures markets then eased. This trend indicates a decline in selling pressure observed during this period. The index thus fell back to 7, corresponding to a calmer market environment. However, this improvement does not guarantee that buyers will sustainably regain control.

Axel Adler Jr. identifies two levels to watch in assessing the risk of a new drop. A stress index above 55, coupled with a price below 80,700 dollars, would be an important warning signal. The combination of these two factors could indicate a new phase of tension. Until then, the return to calm should be interpreted with caution.

Which levels could guide the next price move?

On the daily chart, bitcoin’s structure remains bullish despite the recent correction. However, the price has fallen below the 50% retracement level at 81,230 dollars. This movement shows that buyers have not yet erased all the effects of the decline. Another drop towards 77,700 dollars remains conceivable.

In the short term, maintaining the price above support levels could favor stabilization. However, market indicators do not yet confirm a sustainable demand comeback. Flows tied to exchange platforms, funding rates, and open interest remain important aspects to monitor. Their evolution will help better understand the strength of the current rebound.

The level of 83,600 dollars now constitutes an important reference for what comes next. A return above this threshold could indicate the correction is ending. Conversely, another drop below 80,700 dollars, combined with a rise in the stress index, would increase downside risks. Market reactions around these levels should therefore guide future analyses.

BTC thus retains a bullish structure on the daily scale despite a 7.59% drop in early October. In the short term, investors will mainly need to watch the 83,600-dollar threshold and the risk of a drop towards 77,700 dollars. The continuation of the rebound will depend on the price’s ability to break its next resistance, while stress indicators will help assess whether selling pressure returns.