Bitcoin: An Atypical September and a Beacon of Hope

Bitcoin is about to close September with a gain of 4.5%, a rare performance that historically precedes spectacular rallies at year-end. On-chain data moreover confirms reinforced demand, notably driven by American investors. Will this historic setup be enough to propel BTC towards $170,000 by December?

A Historic Setup Brimming with Hope

Bitcoin is currently trading around $113,100, ready to close September on a positive note. At first glance, this gain may seem modest, but its importance is far from trivial.

History confirms it: in 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, whenever September ended with a “green candle,” the fourth quarter was marked by a powerful rally, with average performances exceeding 53%.

Among these decisive months, October serves as the true trigger. According to CoinGlass data, it averages +21.8%, followed by November with +10.8%. December, on the other hand, is more unpredictable, sometimes recording a slight correction of -3.2%.

This seasonal pattern demonstrates that October serves as the springboard for major upward moves, which then consolidate progressively through autumn.

The numbers speak for themselves: in these previous scenarios, bitcoin consistently displayed quarterly returns between 45% and 66%. If the trend repeats, the hypothesis of BTC at $170,000 by the end of 2025 gains significant credibility.

Economist Timothy Peterson, a Bitcoin network specialist, concurs. He recalls that “about 60% of bitcoin’s annual performance usually occurs after October 3rd” and estimates a 50% probability of the asset reaching $200,000 by mid-2026.

This seasonality is not random. It is partly explained by the effect of halvings, which reduce the issuance of new bitcoins and increase the asset’s scarcity. The years following these events are often marked by an influx of institutional capital and portfolio repositioning, generating buying pressure that can last until mid-next year.

Onchain Signals Confirm the Bullish Trend

Beyond historical patterns, current technical indicators reinforce the optimistic scenario. The 90-day Spot Taker CVD has turned positive again this Monday, showing its first green signal since July 14th. 

This indicator measures the cumulative difference between buying and selling volumes on the spot market. When it turns green, it means buyers clearly dominate sellers.

At the same time, the Coinbase premium index reveals steady accumulation by American investors. Third-quarter data shows a buying activity concentration not seen since early July. 

This convergence between positive CVD and high Coinbase premium reflects strong institutional demand, a determining factor to support a durable upward trajectory.

However, a nuance is necessary. According to the latest Glassnode data, the accumulation tendency score has recently weakened, suggesting a more cautious approach from big holders. 

This concentration of bitcoin ownership in the hands of a minority – fewer than 20,000 wallets controlling more than 60% of the supply – could create increased volatility if these “whales” decide to take profits.

The alignment of historical data and onchain signals outlines a favorable scenario for bitcoin in the fourth quarter. The current setup recalls past major rallies, and the $170,000 target is not pure speculation. Nevertheless, past performances never guarantee future results, and the concentration of ownership among a few institutional players represents a risk to watch closely.