Bitcoin : Analysts Warn Of A Risky Relief Rally

While the Bitcoin market remains under pressure, an analyst suggests that the bottom may have been reached. Contrary to the climate of distrust, he envisions a rebound towards 100,000-110,000 dollars, reigniting speculation about a trend reversal. This scenario, based on precise technical indicators, contrasts with the prevailing sluggishness and captures investors’ attention.

The signs of a technical bottom

While Strategy releases an anti-panic indicator that changes everything after the crash of the flagship asset, the trader Mister Crypto suggests in a recent analysis that Bitcoin may have formed a short-term bottom, after an intense selling phase he calls “capitulation”.

He primarily relies on the technical indicator RSI (Relative Strength Index), observed on weekly data. “We have hit the bottom for Bitcoin, this is where it’s at. We touched the level 30. Boom”, he states.

Historically, this level is often associated with temporary trend reversals, especially during prolonged bear market phases. According to him, this reading of the RSI corresponds to a stabilization of the BTC price structure, even though the analyst does not speak of the start of a bull run at this stage.

Beyond the RSI, Mister Crypto identifies several technical and behavioral factors that strengthen the hypothesis of a short-term technical rebound :

• Whales may have started opening long positions, despite an environment of extreme fear ;

• The market sentiment, although negative, creates an environment typical of temporary reversals, as observed in previous cycles ;

• Behavioral analysis suggests the beginning of a strategic repositioning by some major players, who would take advantage of prices considered attractive in the short term.

For Mister Crypto, this convergence of technical signals and market behavior creates a setup conducive to a temporary but potentially significant rebound, without necessarily validating the definitive end of the bear market.

A potential rebound under macroeconomic tension

Beyond technical indicators, Mister Crypto mentions other elements that, in his view, could support a temporary rebound phase.

He notably mentions the current distance between the asset price and its 50-week moving average, positioned around 102,000 dollars. He recalls that “in previous cycles, BTC regularly bounced toward this average after breaking it”, suggesting a dynamic of return to balance before any new momentum or major correction.

On the macroeconomic front, several factors feed this relief rally hypothesis. The analyst anticipates a potential end to quantitative tightening as well as a possible rate cut at an upcoming monetary authority meeting, two factors which, if realized, could ease financial conditions and reinvigorate risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which had stagnated at extreme fear for 18 days, has just risen to 28, a still fragile level, but one that reflects a relative improvement in market sentiment.

Interpretation of this context divides analysts. While Mister Crypto envisions a rebound between 100,000 and 110,000 dollars, he tempers his statements by reminding that this movement could be transient.

The overall market is still bearish according to him, and a lasting upward return would require a true structural reversal of economic and monetary conditions. Meanwhile, André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, mentions an asymmetric risk-return profile, comparable to that of the March 2020 crash, stating that “the market is already creating an extremely pessimistic macroeconomic scenario”.

The scenario of a rebound toward 110,000 dollars remains uncertain, but technical signals are reigniting speculation. In this context, Bitcoin shows a strong negative correlation with USDT, an indicator closely watched by investors seeking a strategic entry point.