Bitcoin and Gold Hit a Six-Year Correlation High

Bitcoin and gold have rarely moved so often in the same direction. Their 90-day correlation reached its highest level since 2020, according to Bitwise. This convergence comes as investors turn away from long-term U.S. bonds, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up to around 4.8%.

Convergence with gold, doubts about stock market decoupling

To better understand this movement, our inter-market correlation analysis reviews the links between bitcoin and major financial markets. The 90-day bitcoin-gold correlation climbed during the recent wave of bond sales, as long yields rose and the Treasury, led by Scott Bessent, increased its purchases of long-term securities. 

For Bitwise, investors are finding it increasingly difficult to distinguish bitcoin from gold. According to André Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise, bitcoin might even be starting to behave like an amplified version of gold. 

A note by Zachary Pandl published on August 27 by Grayscale Research confirms the trend: the bitcoin/gold correlation now exceeds 50%, up from nearly zero at the beginning of 2026, while the bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 correlation has fallen from about 60% to 33%.

Caution comes from on-chain data. In its report “The Week On-Chain Week 35 2026,” Glassnode notes the 30-day bitcoin/S&P 500 correlation fell near zero during the August rally. 

However, this type of sudden decoupling during massive sovereign bond sell-offs has historically proven temporary, indicating more of a local exhaustion rather than a structural shift. The post-short-squeeze rally stopped below $83,000-86,000, with a floor between $62,000 and $65,000.

A third interpretation, voiced by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, qualifies the picture: over six months, bitcoin showed a weaker correlation to U.S. stocks than gold, small caps, emerging markets, or Treasuries. Its historic correlation to stocks remains stable, around 0.40; it is gold and Treasuries that have moved closer to equities, with no narrative change on bitcoin’s side.

What on-chain data and Bitcoin ETF flows reveal

Our on-chain analysis of the bitcoin cycle places the $83,000-86,000 range as a technical ceiling and the $62,000-65,000 range as a bearish reference until a breakout is confirmed. Spot ETF flows, which peaked at $290M per day at the height of the movement, will serve as a complementary indicator to distinguish true underlying demand from a simple rebound.

The next signal to watch: will the 30-day bitcoin/S&P 500 correlation remain near zero or quickly return? Between Bitwise’s reading and Glassnode’s caution, the answer will emerge in the upcoming bond sessions.