Bitcoin at 1 million: Bitwise claims that 17% of the market could be enough

The scenario seems huge. However, Bitwise argues that a bitcoin at 1 million dollars does not necessarily imply total dominance over gold. According to Matt Hougan, the company’s chief investment officer, bitcoin would only need to capture about 17% of the global store of value market within ten years to reach this symbolic threshold.

Bitwise changes the framework of the bitcoin debate

The central idea is simple. Many analysts consider the 1 million dollar target unrealistic because they assume bitcoin would have to swallow nearly half of the current gold capitalization. Bitwise exactly considers that this calculation starts from a poor foundation.

For Matt Hougan, the mistake is to see the store of value market as a fixed block. Yet this market grows over time. It is driven by very concrete factors: public debt, geopolitical uncertainty, loose monetary policies, and the search for assets that can preserve purchasing power.

In this reading, bitcoin does not need to “take the place” of today’s gold. It mainly must earn its share in a market that could become much larger. Put differently, the bar remains high, but it is no longer absurd. That is the whole nuance of Bitwise’s reasoning.

A much bigger store of value market tomorrow

Bitwise recalls that gold capitalization increased from around 2.5 trillion dollars in 2004 to nearly 38 trillion today, representing an average annual growth of about 13%. If this momentum continues, the global store of value market could reach 121 trillion dollars in ten years.

At that level, bitcoin would not need to dominate half the field. A 17% share would be enough, according to Hougan, to justify a price of 1 million dollars per unit. The figure is striking because it transforms a maximalist fantasy into a more defensible market hypothesis.

This reasoning also has a psychological effect. It shifts the conversation. We no longer talk about a sudden shock between bitcoin and gold, but a gradual shift in a universe where investors seek several refuges at once. In this setting, bitcoin does not need to be alone at the top to be worth much more than today.

Bitcoin: drivers proposed by Bitwise

Bitwise bases its thesis on several already visible trends. The company cites the rise of institutional investments, the role of ETFs, the potential interest of sovereign funds, and the gradual increase of bitcoin allocation in portfolios.

This point deserves to be noted. Bitwise’s bet is not just a theoretical calculation. It relies on the idea that bitcoin continues to gain legitimacy in traditional finance. This movement remains uneven, sometimes slow, but it exists. And it is precisely this type of adoption that can sustainably change the perceived value of an asset.

In other words, Bitwise is not selling a miracle. The manager offers a trajectory. It assumes that bitcoin continues its transformation: less purely speculative asset, more heritage instrument for investors who want to diversify their exposure to monetary and geopolitical risk.