Bitcoin at 126K? In reality, it has never exceeded 100,000 dollars

There was a shout for the record. The networks lit up. Bitcoin had supposedly exceeded 126,000 dollars. A historic peak? Not so fast. This raw number, without filter, hides a much more nuanced reality. Galloping inflation, monetary erosion, and financial optical illusions have blurred reference points. Believing that BTC has crossed this symbolic threshold is to ignore that in today’s economy, the dollar no longer is worth what it was. And behind the numbers, there is the story we too often forget to…

The false peak of 126,000 $: when inflation catches up with the narrative

Has the BTC price really crossed the mythical six-figure threshold? Not if you adjust for inflation. Alex Thorn, analyst at Galaxy, reminds that the 126,000-dollar peak in October 2025 actually equals 99,848 dollars in constant 2020 dollars.

His analysis relies on the CPI, an index that reflects the gradual loss of purchasing power of the greenback. And this shift is far from negligible: the dollar’s value has dropped by 20% since 2020. The problem is that the media economy works with raw numbers. And the algorithms love that.

Thorn summarizes his thought in a tweet that went viral:

If you adjust bitcoin’s price for inflation using 2020 dollars, BTC has never exceeded $100,000. It actually peaked at $99,848 in 2020 value, if you can believe it. 

The economy is distorted, but comparisons remain frozen. Bitcoin rises, sure, but in an environment where fiat currency is crumbling, nothing is that simple.

Crypto domestication: Bitcoin facing the old world’s tools

By reintroducing macroeconomic tools into crypto analysis, aren’t we betraying BTC’s original spirit? Inflation, real comparisons, seasonal adjustments… This is exactly what Bitcoin wanted to avoid at its inception.

On X, BitKane doesn’t hide his skepticism:

If we start looking at bitcoin’s price from the angle of “adjustment,” aren’t we simply recreating the same system? Aren’t we, by thinking in terms of seasonal adjustments, becoming the new central bankers?

This unease raises a deep tension: between purists, who see bitcoin as a tool of resistance to institutional economy, and those who push for its integration into macro logics.

This debate goes beyond BTC alone. Ethereum, with its increasingly institutional rollups, or stablecoins backed by state currencies, reflect this same dynamic. The whole ecosystem seems to be moving closer to a more structured, less rebellious model.

Inflation economy: normalization accelerates

It is not so much bitcoin that’s booming, but rather the dollar that’s wavering. This disturbing observation is unavoidable in an economy shaken by a cumulative inflation of 24% between 2020 and 2025.

Alex Thorn goes further. For him, 2026 promises to be too chaotic to be predictable. Yet, Galaxy maintains a bullish long-term view, estimating bitcoin could reach 250,000 dollars by the end of 2027, driven by the growing institutionalization of the market.

BTC becomes more mature, its volatilities flatten out, its options diversify. Even its “volatility smile” aligns with that of commodities. Everything seems to indicate that the crypto economy is structuring itself.

But in this quest for recognition, the risk is great: trading freedom for integration. When records are read without filter, we forget that real value is built with context, not just spectacular peaks.

What the numbers don’t always say

• Bitcoin’s peak in 2025: $126,000 (nominal);
• In 2020 value: $99,848;
• Cumulative inflation 2020–2025: +24%;
• Dollar purchasing power: −20% since 2020;
• Current BTC price: 87,320 dollars.

Some will continue to believe it firmly. For them, Bitcoin has crossed the symbolic threshold. Regardless of adjustments. And despite doubts, a segment of enthusiasts already projects a BTC at 180,000 dollars by 2026. The economy divides. So do the numbers.