Bitcoin : Bernstein Sees Signs of Recovery and Confirms $150,000 by the End of 2026

Bitcoin has fallen about 54% from its October 2025 peak near 125,000 dollars, significantly less than the 75 to 90% crashes that ended previous cycles. According to a research note from investment bank Bernstein published on Monday, July 6, 2026, this more limited decline reflects a growing market maturity. The bank nevertheless maintains its target of 150,000 dollars for the end of the year, which it calls “ambitious”. 

Why this correction is different from previous ones

Bernstein analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, highlight that the current pullback has an atypical profile compared to historical bear markets. Previous corrections erased between 75 and 90% of gains at the peak, over periods of 12 to 15 months. This time, the drop caps at 54% and covers only three quarters of the cycle peak, a gap that is not explained by chance.

Flows confirm this less bleak picture than it seems. Combined inflows of treasury companies and ETFs reach 10 billion dollars since January 2026, compared to 60 billion over all of 2025. For investors following bitcoin accumulation by listed companies, Strategy concentrates most of these purchases.

Michael Saylor’s company has acquired about 175,000 BTC for nearly 14 billion dollars since the start of the year, thus bringing its total reserves to 847,363 BTC. Its debt represents only 13% of the value of its bitcoin collateral, and the next principal repayment of about 1 billion dollars is scheduled only for the third quarter of 2028. Bernstein therefore considers any forced sale unlikely, which makes Strategy a structurally net buyer on the market.

As for ETFs, 5.5 billion dollars of outflows on a base of 74 billion represent less than 8% of total assets under management. In an environment where liquidity concentrates on AI-related stocks, Bernstein believes this figure gives an impression of panic greater than the reality of flows.

American bitcoin miners lose ground, regulation progresses

The global network hash rate has fallen about 11% since the beginning of the year, due to an accelerated withdrawal of large publicly traded American miners. They are redirecting their infrastructures towards data centers dedicated to AI. 

Their share in the total hashing power has lost more than 40 basis points over the last two quarters, while operators from Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and Latin America gained about 100 basis points. Bernstein anticipates that major American miners will completely abandon bitcoin mining in the medium term.

On the regulatory front, several signals converge. The GENIUS stablecoin law is notably continuing its legislative journey. Perpetual futures on crypto are now being deployed in the United States via Kalshi and Coinbase. 

Bernstein estimates about a 50% probability of Clarity Act adoption in 2026, based on Polymarket data. Tokenized physical assets have also reached an all-time high of about 52 billion dollars, a sign of the growing depth of institutional crypto markets.

In sum, the duration of the correction remains below the usual 12 to 15 months of previous bear cycles. Bernstein monitors flows to detect “the slightest sign of recovery.” Strategy as a net buyer, accelerating regulation, contained ETF outflows: the conditions for a reversal are taking shape. The market will decide if they are sufficient.