Bitcoin: Bitfinex Signals a Bullish Super Trend After Months

Bitcoin has just recorded a technical change that Bitfinex had been expecting for several days. According to the exchange, BTC’s weekly Super Trend has become bullish again for the first time since the start of the downward trend. The signal comes after the powerful rebound in August, which had brought the price from the $63,000 area to over $80,000.

Bitcoin Finally Crosses the Threshold Expected by the Super Trend

The change did not happen suddenly. On September 1st, Bitfinex was still observing a bearish weekly Super Trend with a line around $79,600. Bitcoin was then trading less than $1,000 from this threshold. A few days later, the close above the line flipped the indicator.

This development happens while Bitcoin remains confronted with significant resistance around $82,000. On September 6th, BTC was still trading around $80,000 after failing to hold its move above this zone.

The Super Trend works with volatility, measured notably by the Average True Range, or ATR. When its line stays above the price, the trend is considered bearish. When it falls below the price, the indicator instead classifies the trend as bullish.

Bitfinex typically uses an ATR period of 10 and a multiplier of 3 as common parameters. The indicator therefore reacts less quickly than a simple daily move. The weekly flip indeed took several days.

The Weekly Signal Comes After the Daily Chart One

The daily chart was ahead. In its analysis of September 3rd, Bitfinex indicated that the daily Super Trend was already bullish. Its line was then around $72,279, while Bitcoin was trading near $78,875. On the weekly chart, confirmation was still missing.

This difference comes from the indicator’s functioning itself. A daily candle reacts faster to a price change than a weekly candle. The daily signal can therefore appear several days before the underlying trend changes in turn.

Meanwhile, the market continued to progress. Bitcoin exceeded $82,000 on September 4th before returning around $79,000. This short-term loss of momentum was already noted despite several still favorable indicators.

This is where the reading becomes more interesting. The weekly Super Trend has turned bullish while some short-term indicators are already showing a slowdown. The two pieces of information are not contradictory: one measures a longer trend, the others react more to the latest sessions.

A Bullish Signal Does Not Guarantee a New Bitcoin Rise

Bitfinex presents the Super Trend as a trend-following indicator, not as a tool capable of predicting bitcoin’s next price.

It can also produce false signals when the market trades in a narrow range. The exchange itself recommends confronting it with price structure, supports and resistances, as well as other indicators such as RSI, MACD, or moving averages. 

The $82,000 zone remains important. The market has already tried to break through it before retreating. Even higher, CryptoQuant had identified $83,000 as an important level to confirm a broader market regime change.

The two methods differ. CryptoQuant relies notably on demand data and on-chain indicators, while the Super Trend depends on price and volatility. Their current proximity nevertheless provides an additional reference. For Bitcoin, the change is real on the weekly chart: the indicator that Bitfinex was still watching below $79,600 has flipped. Now it will be necessary to see how long it stays under the price. That is what, more than a simple switch to green, will give weight to the signal.