Bitcoin Breakout Meets Skepticism Across Prediction Markets

Bitcoin has just recorded its strongest bullish surge in five months, but prediction markets still refuse to shout victory. After an 8.7% jump on Wednesday, BTC climbed up to $71,556 on Thursday, gaining 3.26% on the day and regaining levels lost since June 1^st. Behind this spectacular awakening, a paradox emerges: Myriad shifts towards optimism, while Polymarket and Kalshi remain cautious about long-term deadlines. Between short position buybacks and decisive resistance at $70,284, the rally still has to prove it can become a real trend.

The collapse of bearish positions turns the market into an indecisive duel

While bitcoin just reached $72,000, the Myriad prediction market experienced a very short-term expectation realignment. A few days ago, the betting community displayed overwhelming bearish conviction, assigning about 70% chances to a freefall scenario down to $55,000. Wednesday’s session swept away this certainty, as the probabilities immediately rebalanced to show a strict 50-50, oscillating around 52% chance for a push to $84,000 against 48% for a return to $55,000.

Therefore, the execution mechanism of this specific contract intensifies the tension, as it has no calendar expiration date. The market will be settled at the exact moment the spot price BTC/USDT on the Binance exchange hits one of the two boundaries, either $84,000 or $55,000.

This sudden reversal of probabilities on Myriad reflects less a fundamental rebound than a technical capitulation in the face of the movement’s violence. The 8.7% jump recorded on Wednesday was Bitcoin’s strongest daily increase in nearly six months, forcing bearish investors to urgently buy back their hedges.

Thus, data shows the total volume on prediction markets reaches historic highs, precisely because professional traders use them as hedging instruments against their real positions in derivative markets. The odds flip therefore resembles an accounting of victims caught off guard by the rise rather than a vote for a sustainable bullish cycle.

Several key factors explain the specificity of this arbitrage dynamic on Myriad :

• A mechanical risk adjustment : the odds realignment results from forced buybacks of short positions after crossing $69,000 ;
• The absence of time constraint : the contract settles only upon reaching a threshold, which prompts traders to react to every major impulse ;
• The role of synthetic hedging : operators use Myriad to neutralize the risk of sudden liquidations suffered on their leveraged positions.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, the resistance of long-term contracts reflects bitcoin investors’ mistrust

While the very short term was swept by the rise, longer-term deadlines maintain persistent skepticism. On Polymarket, the flagship contract on year-end price last week assessed a 56% probability that bitcoin hits $55,000 before December 31st, granting only 51% chance for reaching $75,000.

The Kalshi platform showed a similar lag compared to the spot market reality, assigning only 54% chance for surpassing $67,500 in August and 31% for $70,000, two thresholds shattered during Wednesday’s surge. Even on Polymarket’s August bets, breaking $75,000 gathered only 47% probability for $12 million volume.

The odds grid shows a rapid degradation of confidence as targets rise: 93% for $72,500, 59% for $75,000, 31% for $77,500, before collapsing to 15% for $80,000 and a paltry 1% for the $100,000 mark.

The distant deadline markets refuse to give in to the ambient FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). Indeed, record volumes observed are explained by portfolio managers taking advantage of the rebound to lock in cheap insurance prices rather than accumulate risk.

Facing the critical threshold of $70,284, the specter of false signals from 2025 and 2026 reappears

Purely graphical analysis now demands absolute vigilance around the reload zone. Thus, the true technical breaking point is at $70,284, representing the lower bound of a major resistance band on daily charts. A daily close validated above this mark would clear the way towards $73,245.

Conversely, failure to maintain support at $68,000 would reintegrate the asset into the compression wedge that has trapped the price since June. It is worth remembering clearly that this narrow compressive structure is strictly identical to the one preceding violent drops observed in October 2025 and January 2026.

The significant gap between spot market impulse and conservative long-term prediction contracts illustrates the current market’s complex maturity. While forced liquidation of short sellers allowed bitcoin to momentarily escape its summer lethargy, the sustainability of this movement will depend on buyers’ ability to convert resistance at $70,284 into unshakable support. Otherwise, the lack of commitment on year-end derivatives reminds that institutional capital favors caution, seeing this rise as temporary relief rather than the beginning of a new expansion phase.