Bitcoin Could Finally Find Its Bottom This Month, According to 10x Research

The cryptocurrency market continues to evolve in a context marked by economic uncertainties and expectations around US monetary policy. In this climate, several indicators support the idea that a reversal could be approaching. According to 10x Research, bitcoin could confirm a bear market bottom as early as this August if certain technical conditions are met. This hypothesis also relies on several signals observed by other industry players.

Bitcoin Faces a Decisive Technical Threshold to Confirm Its Bottom

According to 10x Research, the market now expects a monthly close above 63,000 dollars to validate a reversal signal. Markus Thielen, the company’s founder, explains that July’s close remained below the required level. However, a close near this threshold would activate several cyclical indicators developed by the company. At the time of the analysis, bitcoin’s price was trading around 63,140 dollars, leaving a relatively narrow margin to trigger this scenario.

The company states in its report shared with Cointelegraph that it favors long positions as long as major technical levels remain intact. However, it specifies that dropping below critical supports and key moving averages would lead to a return to a neutral position. This approach shows that the favorable scenario still depends on the market’s ability to maintain its current momentum. The coming days could therefore play a decisive role in confirming this trend.

Macroeconomic Factors Remain the Main Risk

The scenario favored by 10x Research is based on the maintenance of the Federal Reserve’s interest rates. However, a further rise in the yield of the US ten-year bonds could push the central bank to raise rates as early as September.

This eventuality would constitute an additional pressure factor for bitcoin, whose evolution remains sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. The report also highlights that the geopolitical context, notably the Middle East conflict, remains a source of uncertainty that is difficult to predict.

Meanwhile, 10x Research estimates that miners could sell about 100,000 BTC. Some of them would gradually redirect their activities towards artificial intelligence, which would increase the supply available on the market.

The company also anticipates additional sales related to the liquidation of positions held by treasury companies specializing in bitcoin. Despite these elements, it still considers the global economic environment as the main risk factor.

Several Indicators Converge Towards a Bottom

Other analyses published recently point in the same direction. Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, estimates that bitcoin may have reached its bottom earlier than the classic four-year cycle suggests. According to him, even if this model traditionally places the trough between September and October, macroeconomic conditions could shift this timeline. The Fed’s policy would thus remain the determining factor for the market’s next phase.

For its part, K33 declared in its report published in early July that more than half of bitcoin’s supply is currently held at a loss. The company recalls that in previous cycles, a bottom appeared between 13 and 31 days after this configuration appeared in 2017, 2018, and 2022.

Finally, Cory Klippsten, CEO of Swan Bitcoin, highlighted in an interview given to Cointelegraph that long-term holders now control a record level of 14.7 million BTC. According to him, this accumulation also indicates that bitcoin is approaching a durable bottom.

If the monthly close indeed exceeds the threshold monitored by 10x Research, several technical indicators could converge towards a trend change for BTC. Conversely, a deterioration in macroeconomic conditions or a rise in US rates could further delay the confirmation of this potential bottom.