Bitcoin Decline Raises Fears Of Extended Bear Cycle

Bitcoin approaches a decisive threshold. Around 60,000 dollars, the market equilibrium weakens. The latest data suggest that breaking this level could extend the bearish phase far beyond expectations. Between degraded technical signals, persistent selling pressure, and an uncertain macroeconomic environment, recovery prospects are fading. The scenario of a longer cycle now dominates analyses.

The $60,000 threshold under close watch

Bitcoin has erased all of its recent gains, recording a 24.6 % decline over the quarter, while marking a retreat of about 48 % since its peak of 126,000 dollars reached in October 2025.

Ecoinometrics data reveals a direct relationship between the depth of corrections and the length of the recovery. Thus, “each additional 10 % drop adds about 80 days to the recovery phase”, a key factor for anticipating the course of the cycle.

Several market signals reinforce this reading :

• Stabilization around 60,000 dollars would still allow a return to the highs in about 300 days, consistent with historical cycles ;
• The BCMI index stands at 0.27, far from the capitulation threshold around 0.15 ;
• On-chain data shows persistent selling pressure, with a whale delta of -22.13 ;
• Liquidity, on both spot and derivatives markets, shows signs of contraction.

These factors reflect a still fragile market, where conditions for a true bottom do not seem met.

An extreme scenario pushing back Bitcoin recovery

Beyond the 60,000 dollars threshold, projections become much darker. Historical models mention the possibility of a retreat to a zone between 40,000 and 45,000 dollars, corresponding to a total drop of 64% to 68% from the peak.

In this case, market dynamics would shift scale. The study indicates that such a scenario would extend the recovery duration to about 440 days, delaying a return to highs until after the second quarter of 2027.

This scenario takes place in a less favorable macroeconomic environment. Expectations of rate cuts have been revised downward, while some models now incorporate a probability of further hikes by 2027.

This shift limits risk appetite and restricts capital flow towards cryptos. The ongoing cycle could thus deviate from usual dynamics, often characterized by fast rebounds after the halving, favoring a slower and extended market adjustment phase.

In this context, the hypothesis of a prolonged cycle redefines investor expectations. Between still fragile technical signals and persistent macroeconomic constraints, Bitcoin could evolve within a zone of lasting uncertainty. The history of past cycles offers benchmarks, but current dynamics remind us that each market phase has its own rules, and that the next peak might depend as much on monetary policies as on the structural adoption of the asset.