Bitcoin Eyes $112K As Market Braces For Fed Signal

Under pressure facing an uncertain economy, markets are watching every move of the Federal Reserve. Far from being limited to traditional assets, its decisions now strongly influence the crypto market. Approaching a potential surprise rate cut, bitcoin holds its breath. Such a monetary signal could propel the leading crypto to new heights, fueling expectations of a historic rally.

Expectations Around the Fed and Crypto Market Hopes

After a third consecutive rate hold in May, markets reacted in a mixed manner, reflecting increased nervousness in response to signals from the U.S. central bank.

Heading into the decisive June 18 meeting, financial markets predominantly expect the Federal Reserve to maintain the status quo. According to CME FedWatch Tool data, 97.5 % of investors anticipate that key rates will remain within the current range of 4.25 % to 4.50 %.

However, an alternative hypothesis is gaining traction : that of an earlier-than-expected monetary adjustment. For Carlo Pruscino, analyst at CMC Markets, a surprise rate cut would have a direct impact on cryptos. He specified :

If these next two rate cuts happen much earlier than expected, it will strongly influence future price movements of this asset and other cryptos.

He even proposes a symbolic target level for traders: “the bullish objective traders have in mind for bitcoin is $112,000, a threshold perceived as a key psychological level”.

To better understand this bullish projection, several technical and contextual elements come into play:

• The historical level : bitcoin reached $111,970 on May 22, brushing a symbolic peak before a correction ;

• The psychological threshold of $112,000 : this level is now perceived as a tipping point for the market, likely to attract new volumes if broken ;

• The current momentum: BTC shows a positive performance of +6.72 % over the last 30 days, fueling speculations of a rebound if there is a flexible monetary signal ;

• The crypto market’s sensitivity to Fed policy: historically, rate cut cycles have benefited speculative assets, including bitcoin, due to a more favorable liquidity environment.

The hypothesis of a post-Fed rally therefore relies on a precise alignment between monetary surprise and risk appetite. However, this scenario, however attractive, remains subject to many macroeconomic variables.

Underestimated Structural Constraints : The Weight of Macroeconomic Uncertainties

While some actors bet on a positive reaction of cryptos to a possible rate cut, other indicators cloud the picture. One of the most closely watched short-term elements is the U.S. employment report.

Carlo Pruscino emphasizes the importance of this release: “addressing this statistic, we have just observed some weakness in U.S. economic activity. This figure will therefore need to be strong enough to offset this recent less favorable trend.”

In plain terms, a number exceeding expectations, for example more than 250,000 jobs created, could encourage the Fed to delay any rate cuts.

Beyond cyclical statistics, geopolitical factors complicate reading the Fed’s intentions. The trade climate recently worsened with Donald Trump’s decision to double tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum to 50%.

Pruscino points out that this instability weighs on the Fed’s visibility : “as they have mentioned several times in their statements, the unknown remains tariff and trade policy, and they need clear evidence on this matter.”

These uncertainties reduce the likelihood of a strong monetary move in the short term, due to lack of clarity about the economic impacts of these policy decisions.

Ultimately, while an anticipated monetary easing remains a possible scenario, its realization depends on multiple factors, both economic and political. Bitcoin could benefit, but only if signals align perfectly—particularly weak macroeconomic data, easing of trade tensions such as the agreement between China and the United States, and the return of strong risk appetite. Conversely, any negative surprise in upcoming statistics or a worsening of international tensions could push back this horizon and prolong the current price consolidation.