Bitcoin Faces Major 10.5B Options Expiry

$10.5 billion is the amount of Bitcoin options expiring this Friday, a deadline capable of causing a real short-term shift. After several weeks of bearish pressure, the market faces a decisive test: a simple technical episode or the inflection point awaited by investors? Behind this massive expiry is a precise power struggle between buyers and sellers, the outcome of which could redefine the immediate trajectory of BTC.

A Deadline Under High Tension

The Bitcoin derivatives market is about to experience a key moment. This Friday, about $10.5 billion worth of BTC options expire, a volume large enough to influence short-term price dynamics. Monthly expiries traditionally concentrate a large portion of open interests, but this one stands out by its magnitude and the current market setup.

The position structure reveals a notable imbalance between buyers and sellers. A large portion of call options are positioned above the current bitcoin price. The analysis also points out that “88% of call options will expire worthless if bitcoin remains below $70,000”. Under these conditions, the settlement scenario strongly depends on BTC’s ability to register a significant rebound in the hours preceding the expiry.

The key data of this expiry are as follows :

• $10.5 billion worth of Bitcoin options expire ;
• Deribit represents 76% of the open interest, confirming its dominance in the crypto options market;
• “88% of call options will expire worthless if bitcoin stays below $70,000” ;
• An increase of about 9% would be necessary for buyers to reverse the dynamics before expiry.

Correlation with Traditional Markets and Technical Signals

Beyond the options mechanism, bitcoin’s evolution remains strongly linked to the macroeconomic environment. There is a correlation close to 90% between bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100, highlighting how much the US tech stocks currently influence the crypto market.

This interdependence means that the performance of large listed companies, as well as overall sentiment on risky assets, could weigh heavily in the hours before expiry.

On the charting side, bitcoin may have formed a “double bottom” around $62,500, a technical pattern often interpreted as a signal of potential stabilization. Despite this, the price remains about 21% below its level from a month ago, tempering expectations of a quick reversal. Traders therefore have to deal with a fragile market, where the slightest impetus from equity markets could amplify volatility in derivatives.

This $10.5 billion expiry will serve as an immediate test to gauge market strength. If buyers fail to regain the initiative, pressure could persist. Conversely, a rebound would alter the current balance. In the coming hours, the bitcoin price will say whether this expiry marks a turning point or a simple technical step.