Bitcoin Faces Resistance From Key On-Chain Indicator

While bitcoin flirted with a new all-time high, the $123,000 threshold abruptly halted its run. This bottleneck, both technical and symbolic, surprised a market searching for benchmarks. Between fractal resistances and caution signals, the pullback intrigues as much as it fuels bets on what’s next. What does this failure really reveal ?

The Alpha Price Threshold : A Difficult Technical Barrier to Break

While bitcoin supremacy is being challenged by Ethereum and XRP, analyzing its recent pullback cannot be complete without examining the crucial role played by the Alpha Price indicator, highlighted by Joao Wedson, CEO of the on-chain analysis platform Alphractal. In a post on X, he states : “the flagship crypto price failed to break the second Alpha Price level, which could indicate a short-term loss of momentum”.

Bitcoin Struggles Below Key Alpha Price Level

Bitcoin failed to break through the second Alpha Price level, which currently sits at $123,370—and that's not a great sign for the short term. This level will update tomorrow, as it's dynamically adjusted based on real-time on-chain… https://t.co/q8MWodnwbi pic.twitter.com/KcLioEPFdp

— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) July 18, 2025

This threshold, located at $123,370, represents according to Wedson a critical resistance level in the context of the current bull cycle. Bitcoin stopped just short, at $122,800, its new all-time high, before correcting. According to the analyst, this level acts as a strong selling pressure zone where investors seek to secure their gains.

Here are the main technical elements provided by Wedson’s analysis :

• The Alpha Price is an on-chain indicator that takes into account the market age in days and the historical average market capitalization of bitcoin ;

• It breaks down into several dynamic thresholds, called “Alpha levels,” which act as zones of psychological pressure ;

• The $123,370 threshold corresponds to the second Alpha level, considered a major resistance in a bull market phase ;

• This level has never been sustainably breached so far, which limits the probabilities of a bullish extension in the very short term ;

• Joao Wedson specifies, however, that this failure does not necessarily mark a market top, but likely requires a retreat before any new breakout attempt.

Technical analysis therefore suggests that bitcoin could remain under pressure as long as it has not clearly validated this level as support. Until then, the market seems engaged in a breathing phase, with medium-term bullish potential if on-chain conditions improve.

The Awakening of a Satoshi Era Wallet and Its Domino Effect

Alongside this technical resistance, a very rare event cooled bullish enthusiasm: the awakening of a whale from the Satoshi era, the earliest years of bitcoin’s life.

On July 17, a wallet inactive for over ten years suddenly moved its funds, causing an emotional and speculative shock within the market. Such activity is generally seen as a warning signal, as it suggests very old holders, often regarded as historical figures of the network, might be considering selling.

This unusual transaction occurred at a particularly sensitive moment: just after BTC was rejected at the $123,000 level. The effect was immediate. Within 24 hours, bitcoin’s price dropped over 2 %, falling back below $118,000.

Although no massive sell-off was confirmed, the mere movement of these funds sufficed to trigger a climate of caution, illustrating the fragility of market sentiment in a zone of high volatility.

This revived nervousness, combined with the previously mentioned technical failure to break through, opens the door to a short-term consolidation scenario. However, an imminent reevaluation of the Alpha Price indicator could potentially raise the critical thresholds. If so, and if on-chain flows resume a positive trend, the bullish scenario mentioned by Wedson, with a target of $143,000, would remain conceivable, especially with a new golden cross detected.