Bitcoin falls, but fundamentals remain bullish

Despite a correction of more than 4% after a historic peak at $126,219, bitcoin maintains a solid bullish momentum, supported by robust institutional fundamentals. Massive flows to ETFs and renewed Wall Street confidence paint the picture of a maturing market. From Citibank to JPMorgan, the giants of American finance now anticipate a rise to $150,000 by December.

Strong decline in Bitcoin despite solid bullish signals

The bitcoin price recorded a 4.2% correction on Tuesday, after reaching a new historic high the day before. This decline occurs amid growing global economic uncertainty.

However, far from reflecting weakness, the derivatives data reveal a surprisingly healthy market structure. Professional traders are not rushing into excessively leveraged positions, which paradoxically is a positive sign.

Monthly futures contracts on bitcoin hold an annualized premium of 8% compared to spot markets. This range, between 5% and 10%, corresponds to a balanced market. 

During periods of excessive euphoria, this spread climbs above 20%. Conversely, bearish phases push it below 5%, even into negative territory. The current moderation suggests that the recent rise is not based on runaway speculation.

This caution in derivative markets provides a valuable safety cushion. It limits the risk of cascading liquidations if prices continue to fall. More importantly, analysts believe that the rebound since testing $109,000 at the end of September relies on real capital flows rather than speculative leverage.

Open interest on futures contracts currently reaches $72 billion. Despite a slight 2% decline since Monday, this volume remains solid. A deep and liquid derivative market is a crucial prerequisite to attract hedge funds and institutional asset managers to bitcoin.

Institutions accumulate while available supply evaporates

Institutional adoption of bitcoin is reaching new milestones. Spot exchange-traded products (ETFs) recorded weekly net inflows of $3.55 billion, pushing assets under management to $195.2 billion. 

For comparison, all investment products indexed to silver — notably ETFs like iShares Silver Trust — represent about $40 billion in assets under management. A contrast that highlights the scale shift between traditional precious metals and bitcoin.

Major American banks have radically changed their stance. Citibank forecasts $181,000 in its base scenario for the next 12 months, with an optimistic scenario at $231,000. 

JPMorgan considers bitcoin undervalued and believes it should already trade around $165,000 if compared to gold. These forecasts rely on the “Debasement Trade” strategy, a bet on the depreciation of national currencies amid growing public debt accumulation.

Companies continue their strategic accumulation. Firms like Strategy and Metaplanet keep buying BTC as a reserve asset. These moves strengthen bitcoin’s status as an independent asset class.

Moreover, bitcoin reserves on exchange platforms have dwindled to their lowest level in five years. Glassnode estimates these balances at 2.38 million BTC, down from 2.99 million one month ago. 

This decline of about 600,000 BTC indicates massive accumulation. Less bitcoin available for immediate sale mechanically means increased upward pressure on prices.

A high-tension end of the year

 Trading volumes remain at exceptionally high levels, proof of sustained interest. American ETFs daily trade about $7 billion, a 200% increase year over year. 

On platforms like Coinbase and Binance, volumes reach $70 billion per day, up 130%. Even the Bitcoin network records $22 billion in direct daily exchanges, with approximately 500,000 transactions.

Geographical adoption is expanding rapidly. Spanish bank BBVA, managing $900 billion in assets, has integrated bitcoin trading into its mobile app. In Russia, the Moscow exchange advocates lifting restrictions to open BTC purchasing to individuals, as part of a strategy to develop alternatives to the SWIFT network.

The current technical consolidation does not undermine the underlying bullish momentum. On the contrary, it helps clean the market by eliminating fragile positions. The longer bitcoin holds sustainably above $120,000, the stronger investor conviction becomes. Fundamentals remain intact: record institutional adoption, tightening supply, stable derivative market, and big bank support.

In short, the $150,000 milestone is no longer a fantasy. It is now a credible target that bulls actively aim for by the end of the year. The question is no longer “if” but “when.”