Bitcoin Has 70% Chance of Fresh Highs as ETF Inflows and Metrics Signal Breakout

With Bitcoin resuming its northward movement, the stage seems set for the firstborn crypto to touch new price levels. Market researcher Axel Adler Jr. even predicts a 70% chance of BTC reaching a fresh high in the next two weeks. However, data also shows more traders exiting positions around $114,000. 

Bitcoin Poised for Breakout as STH Metrics Signal Balanced Market, Says Axel Adler Jr.

Axel Adler Jr. maintained that market conditions are balanced and well aligned, so Bitcoin can take the next leg higher soon. To support his outlook, the market expert pointed to the Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV Z-Scores, a visual indicator that provides insight into Bitcoin’s market cycle phases.

Data shows that the STH score for both the 155-day and 365-day holders is around zero, a sign that the asset is neither overbought nor oversold. 

Bitcoin is currently hovering just above the STH realized price, with the current trend setup hinting at a possible price breakout following a one-to-two-week consolidation period. Citing seasonal drivers, Adler Jr. predicts an “Uptober incoming”.

Outlook Strengthens as Futures Premium and ETF Inflows Signal Bullish Momentum

Axel Adler Jr. further backed his bullish forecast with Bitcoin derivatives data, which track asset prices, volumes, and trading activity. According to the chart, Bitcoin futures are trading higher than spot prices. In addition, the weekly basis is currently above one month, a setup which usually suggests a bullish trend.

Still, the Bitcoin researcher warned that traces of minor overheating were spotted just before the recent FOMC meeting. The average cost basis went up despite low trading activity, suggesting that some traders might have been chasing the move late.

Even so, Adler Jr. explained that the base case remains strong, and “there’s a 70% chance the next two weeks will see a stepwise uptrend or sideways consolidation.” 

Growing institutional demand further reinforces this bullish Bitcoin outlook. Last week, BTC ETFs pulled in over $2.3 billion in capital investment, the strongest weekly performance in three months. Given the increased exposure and bullish technical indicators, investors are confident the coin will start another bullish run.

Is Bitcoin on Track for $124K, or Will Liquidity Gaps Trigger a Pullback First?

Bitcoin has surged about 8.5% since the end of last month, from around $107,600 to $117,246 at the time of writing. But the sharp price swing has left liquidity gaps, which could trigger a short-term dip before the uptrend continues. On top of that, September often has a bearish track record, adding to the risk of a pullback.

Here are other notable Bitcoin trends for investors to note:

• Bullish sentiment dominates current Bitcoin price predictions.
• 95% price growth over the past year highlights strong performance.
• Outperformed 92% of the top 100 crypto assets during the same period.
• Trading above the 200-day SMA with 15 green days in the last 30.

Bitcoin’s year-to-date performance has largely defied expectations of a pullback. For most of 2025, the OG crypto has favored bigger liquidity zones, like major highs and lows, over smaller liquidity levels. A similar trend occurred in July, when BTC skipped past liquidity around $105,000 and quickly pushed to new highs after breaking the daily structure.

Experts note that a similar formation is appearing, and if Bitcoin closes above $117,500, it would validate another daily break of structure (BOS). Assuming this happens, the asset’s chances of dropping below the $114,000 mark would drastically reduce. More so, such a move would confirm Adler Jr.’s fresh all-time high prediction. 

Even though there’s still a chance that Bitcoin could test lower price levels, favorable macroeconomic outlooks, such as the proposed BITCOIN Act and growing ETF inflows, suggest buyers might step in sooner. A strong entry by buyers would effectively prevent a bigger pullback. Whether the asset stalls or touches levels beyond $124,000 will depend on the balance between liquidity gaps and bullish momentum.