Bitcoin Hashrate Declines Amid Global Military Tensions

Can bitcoin falter under the effect of an armed conflict? The recent drop in hashrate provides a concrete example. In a few weeks, a military operation in the Middle East disrupted the network’s balance, highlighting its dependence on certain mining areas. At the same time, the rise in U.S. yields and the slowdown of crypto platforms reflect a gradual disengagement of investors. Between geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic pressure, the market reveals vulnerabilities rarely seen on this scale.

Bitcoin hashrate hit by the Iranian conflict

The Bitcoin network recorded a drop of about 6 % in its hashrate following a military operation carried out by the United States and Israel in Iran. This contraction occurred one month after the launch of the operation “Epic Fury”.

According to Bloomberg crypto analyst Dushyant Shahrawat, “Iran is one of the largest bitcoin miners in the world,” representing between 6 and 8% of the global hashrate, with “70 % of mining activities controlled by the military.”

This situation relies on several structural factors directly related to the geopolitical context :

• Iran contributes between 6 and 8 % of the global hashrate ;
• About 70 % of mining there is controlled by military entities ;
• Energy infrastructures have been disrupted by the conflict ;
• Resources have been redirected to defense priorities.

These combined factors have reduced the country’s hashrate production capacity, causing a measurable impact on the entire Bitcoin network. Such an episode reveals a dependency often underestimated on key geographical mining areas.

Macroeconomic pressures and reshaping of the crypto market

Alongside this episode, the crypto market operates in a less favorable macroeconomic environment. U.S. five-year bond yields have reached 4 %, a level that encourages investors to favor less risky assets.

This dynamic weighs on bitcoin, whose price remained relatively stable around 67,000 dollars. In this climate, some platforms suffer a marked decline. Robinhood saw its stock drop more than 16 % over the month, while its revenues from crypto transactions fell 38 % year-on-year. Volumes on its app also decreased by 58 %.

At the same time, other segments show opposite momentum. Prediction markets surpassed 192 million dollars in transactions in March, a 2,880% increase year-on-year. This growth comes with regulatory tensions, with several U.S. states accusing these platforms of offering activities akin to gambling. Moreover, euro-denominated stablecoins now dominate the non-dollar segment, with 85% of volumes, supported by growing adoption and more structured regulatory frameworks.

These developments reflect a gradual reshaping of the crypto market. The influence of macroeconomic factors, combined with the emergence of new uses, redefines investors’ priorities. In this context, the ecosystem’s ability to absorb external shocks, such as Iran’s denial of peace negotiation promises, while adapting to these new dynamics could determine its trajectory in the coming months.