Bitcoin Historical Patterns Suggest Another Explosive Rally Ahead

Bitcoin has still not regained its historic highs, but speculation about the next ATH is picking up again. A new analysis based on previous BTC cycles estimates that a record above $120,000 remains possible in the coming months. This projection occurs in a climate of great uncertainty, as several analysts still fear an extension of the bear market. Between hope for a historic rally and fear of a new correction, the crypto market remains tense.

A Historical Model Projects Bitcoin Beyond $120,000

While extreme fear returns to the market, crypto analyst Cyclop estimates that bitcoin could still follow a cyclic structure already observed during previous bull markets. His analysis is based on an almost identical repetition of BTC cycles since 2015.

He points out that the 2015 to 2017 bull run lasted approximately 1,065 days, followed by a 365-day bear market. The same pattern then repeated between 2018 and 2021. Applying this logic to the current cycle, Cyclop considers that bitcoin could reach a peak around $126,000 before entering a new bear phase. He also states that “bitcoin could hit its bottom in this bear market by the last quarter of this year”.

The analysis highlights several key projections :

• The 1,065-day bull run between 2015 and 2017 ;
• A 365-day bear market after the 2017 peak ;
• The repetition of the same cycle between 2018 and 2021 ;
• A projection of an ATH around $126,000 ;
• The possibility of a new rally between $140,000 and $150,000 before 2030 ;
• The potential end of the bear market around October 5, 2026.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $76,830, while investors watch for the market’s next technical moves to see if this bullish scenario can truly materialize.

Macroeconomic Tensions Fuel Bearish Scenarios

Other analysts take a much more cautious reading of the current market. This is the case for Colin, who believes that “bitcoin has already reached a local peak”. According to him, several technical indicators signal a weakening of bitcoin’s recent rebound bitcoin.

The analyst notably mentions a rejection on the 200-day moving average as well as a break of a major trendline. He also adds “that it is extremely unlikely that bitcoin has already found its bottom after only four months”, implying that the bear market could last much longer.

This caution fits into a tense macroeconomic climate. Additionally, persistent concerns about inflation and geopolitical risks caused by tensions between the United States and Iran should be noted.

In this context, Colin considers that a return of bitcoin to around $40,000 remains possible. His reasoning is based on the limited scale of the current correction, estimated at about 53% since the historic peak, while previous BTC bear markets had sometimes recorded drops close to 77%.

The contrast between these two views illustrates the uncertainty currently dominating the crypto market. On one side, historical cycles continue to fuel expectations of a new spectacular peak for bitcoin. On the other, technical signals and macroeconomic tensions remind that the market remains vulnerable to new shocks. The coming months could confirm whether BTC enters an accumulation phase before a new ATH or a longer-than-expected bear market.