Bitcoin In June : $3.5B Buys Just 2 % Growth

Billions are flowing in, but Bitcoin is stalling. While spot ETFs are recording record inflows in June 2025, the flagship crypto hardly reacts. A mere 2 % increase over the month, a trivial move in a market accustomed to sharp rallies. This unexpected calm, despite unprecedented institutional momentum, puzzles observers. What does this inertia really reveal ? Behind the visible flows, a new balance is emerging in the crypto arena, far from the classic patterns of speculative euphoria.

A Market Under Pressure : Sellers Counterbalance Buyers

While Bitcoin begins a recovery following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, its recent stagnation reflects a persistent imbalance between purchases and sales in the spot market.

On one hand, Bitcoin ETFs record massive inflows, about 3.5 billion dollars in June. On the other hand, these purchases are neutralized by several major pockets of selling pressure, which act as an immediate brake on any significant price appreciation.

The main identified selling factors are as follows :

• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) : this historic fund, which became a spot ETF in early 2024, continues to record net outflows. Each withdrawal involves a direct sale of BTC on the market.

• Government liquidations : the United States, Germany, and other jurisdictions have proceeded with the sale of bitcoins seized during judicial operations. These massive BTC sales, although occasional, disrupt the supply and demand balance.

• The absence of an immediate catalyst : no major regulatory or economic event is currently stimulating additional demand or justifying significant speculative positioning.

In this context, GBTC outflows and state sales weigh on the price. Buying power is certainly there, but its effect is absorbed. It is a form of mechanical neutralization, where excess supply prevents any bullish start despite an overall environment favorable to institutional investment.

Market Sentiment and Bitcoin’s Weak Technical Signals

Beyond visible capital flows, another dynamic operates behind the scenes: market sentiment and investor positioning.

Despite enthusiasm from institutional investors, short-term traders show no clear appetite for long positions, a crucial factor that may explain the current stagnation.

Moreover, derivative markets send worrying signals: funding rates are becoming negative, indicating that many traders are now paying to maintain short positions. In other words, bearish expectations dominate short term, reinforcing price inertia.

This caution also results in a significant drop in volatility, which reaches historically low levels for Bitcoin. The market seems to have entered a compression phase, often perceived as silent accumulation before a major move.

However, for now, no clear direction emerges, neither up nor down. The absence of immediate catalysts such as new regulations, a macroeconomic shock, or major technological innovation sustains this apparent torpor.

While the ETFs capture flows, the market reality is more nuanced. Medium-term prospects remain uncertain. Some analysts see this as a silent accumulation phase, others a peak of desynchronization between financial flows and speculative reality. If institutional sales diminish and bullish conviction returns to derivatives markets, the rebound potential remains intact.