Bitcoin in November: Consolidation Rather Than Explosion?

Uncertainty hovers over crypto markets as macroeconomic conditions slow down the usual November bullish momentum. Will bitcoin manage to maintain its reputation as the best performing month of the year?

The Fed Cools the Dream of an Explosive November for Bitcoin

Crypto investors hoping for a legendary “Moonvember” may need to temper their expectations. Bitfinex delivers a blunt assessment: the current macroeconomic backdrop favors stabilization over a price surge.

Blame Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve chairman, who sowed doubt about continuing monetary easing.

The probability of a rate cut at the December 10 meeting has plummeted to 67.9% according to CME’s FedWatch tool. A sharp reversal from the 90% seen in recent months. This outlook worries crypto market participants, accustomed to benefiting from accommodative policies that push capital toward riskier assets.

Long-term investors are showing signs of weakness. Bitfinex observes persistent selling in this category, traditionally the most loyal. “They show signs of loss of conviction“, analysts emphasize. Without a rise above 116,000 dollars, time is now working against the most optimistic buyers.

The current correction weighs heavily on portfolios. Bitcoin has dropped 11% in the last 30 days and struggles to regain momentum after reaching a historic high of 125,100 dollars in early October. The October 10 crash, which wiped out 19 billion dollars of leveraged positions, continues to haunt memories.

Optimists Bet on History Repeating Itself

Not all eyes are fixed downward. Several analysts argue that November could still honor its golden reputation. The numbers speak for themselves: since 2013, November shows an average performance of 41.78% for bitcoin. A statistic that fuels hope for a spectacular turnaround.

Dave Weisberger, seasoned trader, stresses that bitcoin’s “fundamentals” remain solid. “The context is VERY constructive compared to previous cycles“, he asserts. 

His conviction rests on a simple observation: bitcoin is trading at relatively low levels compared to other financial assets. An opportunity rather than a threat, according to him.

Social networks buzz with optimism. Carl Runefelt publicly predicts on X that “November will soon turn green again for bitcoin.” 

His message, terse but confident, resonates with AshCrypto who maintains an “always optimistic” stance. These dissenting voices remind that market sentiment can quickly shift in the volatile crypto universe.

Ignacio Aguirre, marketing director at Bitget, shares this measured enthusiasm. “We are optimistic about the growing excitement for Moonvember. Bitcoin’s current sideways movement represents a healthy consolidation phase after recent volatility. Historically, November has always been one of the strongest months for cryptocurrencies“, he explains.

The year-end could also benefit from the famous “Santa Claus Rally,” that seasonal phenomenon which traditionally propels risk assets in December. Small investors accumulate quietly after October downturns, a technical signal often heralding rebounds. The question remains whether this accumulation will be enough to turn the tide.

In short, bitcoin navigates troubled waters between macroeconomic pessimism and seasonal hopes. If November fails to live up to its historical promises, December could offer patient investors a second chance. The outcome of this battle will largely depend on Fed decisions and the market’s ability to regain confidence.