Bitcoin in the Red for Four Straight Months: Could February Trigger a Market Recovery?

A few months ago, Bitcoin was comfortably trading above $100,000, supported by strong market confidence and high expectations for further gains. Optimism peaked with predictions of a historically strong October and a potential all-time high exceeding $126,000. This environment fueled ambitious price forecasts and widespread bullish sentiment. However, the situation changed dramatically on October 10, when a $19 billion liquidation sent Bitcoin into a sharp decline. The cryptocurrency has struggled to recover since that crash, extending its losses into a fourth consecutive month.

Bitcoin Slumps for a Fourth Straight Month

January closed as the fourth month in a row of declines for Bitcoin. The year had begun with some hope for a rebound, but the initial momentum faded by mid-month as prices stalled around $95,000 before reversing. Bitcoin first slipped below $90,000 and then declined further to roughly $81,000 last week. The situation worsened on Saturday, with intensified selling pushing prices down to about $75,000, the lowest level since April 2025. These moves triggered billions of dollars in liquidations, adding to the market pressure.

Data from CoinGlass indicates that Bitcoin ended January with a 10.17% loss, marking it as the second-largest monthly decline in the ongoing four-month downtrend. November recorded the steepest loss, at 17.67%, while October and December saw declines of 3.69% and 2.97%, respectively. These figures highlight the sustained weakness in the market over the past several months.

Understanding the Ongoing Losses

Analysts point to persistent selling pressure and a lack of new capital as key reasons for Bitcoin’s continued decline. Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, pointed out that Bitcoin’s Realized Cap has stayed largely unchanged, indicating that fresh capital is not entering the market. In this situation, a declining market value does not reflect a healthy or rising trend.

Early holders are sitting on big unrealized gains thanks to ETFs and MSTR buying. They’ve been taking profits since early last year, but strong inflows kept Bitcoin near 100K. Now those inflows have dried up.

Ki Young Ju

Looking at historical trends, Bitcoin has rarely faced four consecutive months of losses. The last time this occurred was between late 2018 and early 2019, when the cryptocurrency continued to reach new lows before finally bottoming after six straight months of decline. If past patterns are repeated, Bitcoin could experience additional declines before a notable recovery, similar to the rebound observed during that period.

Analysts Eye February for Bitcoin’s Recovery

Despite recent losses, analysts remain cautiously hopeful about February. Historically, when January ends with losses, the market often experiences a change in direction in the following month. The initial wave of selling can ease pressure on leveraged positions and give the market a chance to stabilize, setting the stage for a potential recovery. Beyond February, Bitcoin could see stronger performance in the second and third quarters. However, analysts point out that traditional four-year cycles are no longer as reliable, meaning positive developments could materialize even sooner than historically expected.

Overall, while Bitcoin has faced significant pressure over the past several months, there are indicators that the market could stabilize and potentially improve in the near term. Investors will be closely tracking trends in February, looking for indications that selling pressure is easing and fresh capital is returning.