Bitcoin May Have Reached Its Bottom in February According to Grayscale

Grayscale reignites the debate on the bitcoin cycle. For the management company, the market may have already found its bottom in February 2026, whereas many analysts still expect a real dip later in the year.

Grayscale Already Sees the Worst Behind Bitcoin

Grayscale estimates that bitcoin already hit its bottom during the stress wave in February. In its note published April 21, 2026, Zach Pandl states the bottom lies in a range between 65,000 and 70,000 dollars, following a movement near 63,000 dollars on February 5.

This point is important because it reverses the prevailing narrative. Instead of a market still looking for its true capitulation, Grayscale suggests that the main cleanup has already occurred. In other words, bitcoin is no longer falling. It is already rebuilding with a rise above 78,000 dollars.

The nuance matters. Grayscale does not say all danger has disappeared. The firm mainly states the market may have already printed a lasting bottom. That is less spectacular than a promise of an immediate rally, but often this is how reversals begin: quietly at first, then with a slow change in structure.

The Key Signal Comes from Recent Buyers

The core of the argument rests on the “realized price.” This indicator seeks the average acquisition cost of a group of bitcoins according to their latest on-chain movement. Simply put, it is used to identify the profitability or pain zone of a cohort of investors.

For bitcoins that changed hands in the last one to three months, Grayscale places this realized price around 74,000 dollars. This means recent buyers roughly returned to balance. They are no longer significantly underwater. And this detail often changes the market mood.

Why is this threshold closely monitored? Because a market where new entrants stop losing money breathes differently. Selling pressure can calm down. Weak hands sell less quickly. And if bitcoin settles above this zone, Grayscale sees a possible beginning of the first bullish phase. It’s not a definitive proof. It is a transition signal.

The market remains divided between two scenarios. For Grayscale, bitcoin already purged most of the excess in February and entered a reconstruction phase. On the other hand, others judge that the current rebound matters but is not yet enough to confirm the end of the bear cycle. The real question is simple: are we witnessing the start of a recovery, or only a pause before another decline? Even with institutional accumulation, the debate remains open.