Bitcoin Might Not Have Hit Bottom Yet, According to Benjamin Cowen

The cryptocurrency market remains fragile as bitcoin hovers near a technical level watched by traders. In a podcast aired on November 9, analyst Benjamin Cowen said a further decline remains possible. According to him, several signals recall previous phases of weakness. He now envisions a bottom in December, in a context marked by seasonal sales and the persistent difficulties of the Nasdaq. This forecast comes as investors monitor several key technical thresholds.

Technical Signals That Weaken Bitcoin Support

Benjamin Cowen places bitcoin in its bullish market support zone. This comprises the 20-week simple moving average and the 21-week exponential moving average. However, the analyst believes this zone could give way. The bitcoin price has bounced off the exponential average, then joined the simple average.

This movement resembles patterns observed on Ethereum and the Nasdaq. Bitcoin closed below its 50-week moving average after briefly surpassing it. This return could signal a bull trap. The rebound thus does not confirm a lasting trend.

The analyst highlights the limited scope of this rise. Crossing the 50-week moving average led to only about a 10% increase. Similar instances had preceded gains close to 30% in 2019 and 2023. Moreover, bitcoin remains below its May peak, reinforcing doubts about the recovery.

The persistent weakness of the Nasdaq poses another risk. Cowen believes it could weigh on the riskiest assets. Investors withdrawing could increase pressure on bitcoin. He also mentions the risk of new massive sell-offs in the fourth quarter.

Why December Could Mark the Bottom for BTC

Cowen does not necessarily expect a sharp drop. He rather foresees a gradual decline, punctuated by temporary rebounds, before a potential bottom in the fourth quarter. This trajectory would follow the lows of February and summer. Bitcoin could therefore continue to fall for several weeks.

To support this timing, the analyst refers to cycles following the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike. According to historical data he cites, weakness appears around the 58th and 94th days. The current cycle is approaching the 54th day. Cowen thus considers December as a possible period to reach a bottom.

He recalls the bitcoin dip in December 2018. This reference supports his hypothesis without guaranteeing a similar path. The next Fed meeting could play a role if investors anticipate the end of rate hikes. Cowen presents this event as a potential factor, not a certainty.

Benjamin Cowen’s analysis therefore describes a market still exposed to pressures. Holding moving averages, the Nasdaq, and Fed expectations will remain decisive. If bearish signals persist, bitcoin could look for a bottom in December. Conversely, maintaining technical support would weaken this scenario and extend the rebound.