Bitcoin: Miners Face a 5.92% Surge in Mining Difficulty

The Bitcoin network has just imposed a new effort on its miners. On October 16, 2026, the mining difficulty increased by 5.92%, reaching 140.58 trillion at block 971,712. This is its highest level since March 5 and the third largest increase recorded this year. This progression occurs as the network’s computing power goes back above one zettahash per second. But behind this activity surge hides a less favorable reality. Miners now have to mobilize more computations to hope to obtain the same rewards, while their income per unit of power remains under pressure.

Why Bitcoin Difficulty Is Increasing Again

The latest adjustment marks a break with the relative stability observed in early October. On October 3, the difficulty had slightly fallen by 0.03% to 132.72 trillion. This period had allowed miners to benefit from a more favorable environment, after a particularly profitable September month.

But the momentum quickly changed. According to Mempool.space data, the adjustment on October 16 occurred at 12:37 UTC. The difficulty then increased by 7.86 trillion, confirming the acceleration of competition on the network.

The contrast with summer is notable. On August 23, Bitcoin difficulty had dropped to 125.81 trillion. Since that date, it has rebounded by about 11.74%.

This progression is explained by the very mechanism of the protocol. Every 2,016 blocks, approximately two weeks, Bitcoin automatically adjusts the difficulty to maintain an average interval close to ten minutes between blocks. When blocks are produced faster than expected, the protocol increases the difficulty.

Hashrate Exceeds 1 ZH/s and Intensifies Competition

The difficulty increase accompanies the return of significant computing power on Bitcoin. According to Hashrate Index, the hashrate reached approximately 1,024.96 EH/s on October 16, thus crossing the symbolic threshold of 1 ZH/s.

This measure corresponds to an estimate of the computing power mobilized by miners. It does not represent a direct count of machines connected to the network. The return above 1 ZH/s contrasts with the early September situation. At that time, miners’ income was increasing without causing an immediate rebound in hashrate, which remained around 934 EH/s.

This evolution suggests that part of the computing power was reactivated or strengthened as economic conditions improved. However, it does not allow to precisely determine how many new machines were installed.

For the Bitcoin network, a sustainably high computing power can strengthen the economic cost of an attack based on proof of work. For individual miners, it mostly means more intense competition to obtain a share of the available rewards.

Bitcoin Miners’ Income Remains Under Pressure

The main problem does not lie solely in difficulty. It also concerns the profitability of each unit of computing power. On September 16, the hashprice, an indicator measuring the estimated daily income per petahash per second, reached $37.56. It then exceeded $41 several times before falling back to $36.75 on October 16, according to Hashrate Index data reported by Bitcoin.com.

To concretely measure this pressure, consider a miner with 100 PH/s. With a hashprice of $36.75, their theoretical gross income reaches about $3,675 per day. This amount does not constitute a profit. Electricity costs, operational fees, maintenance, and equipment depreciation still need to be deducted.

The difficulty increase adds an additional constraint. With unchanged computing power, and all else equal, a 5.92% difficulty increase reduces expected BTC production per unit of time by about 5.59%.

This distinction is important: a 5.92% higher difficulty does not mechanically correspond to a 5.92% income drop. The price of Bitcoin, transaction fees, and the power actually exploited also influence the results.

The margin pressure is not new, moreover. Since June, Bitcoin miners were already facing profitability deterioration, notably due to weak income generated by their equipment.

The Increase Could Accelerate Economic Trade-offs

Faced with this competition, not all operators have the same resources. Those using recent machines and benefiting from cheap electricity can maintain an advantage over older setups.

For structures with high costs, another hashprice deterioration might force tough decisions: temporarily reduce activity, upgrade equipment, or seek other revenue sources.

Some companies are already considering redirecting part of their infrastructure towards artificial intelligence. As shown by a recent Cointribune analysis on funding miners engaged in AI, however, this diversification requires significant investments and does not guarantee immediate improvement in results.

The current difficulty increase is therefore not enough to conclude that miners are becoming globally less profitable. It rather confirms that revenue recovery can attract more computing power, which eventually diminishes the initial advantage of operators already active.

A New Adjustment Expected at the End of October

The coming weeks will allow measuring the rebound’s strength. Bitcoin.com initially mentioned a possible additional increase of 14.24% around October 28. This forecast, however, was based on the first blocks of the new computing period.

It must be considered with caution. Estimates continuously evolve according to the speed of block production. At our consultation on October 17, ChainQuery showed a much lower projection of 2.72%, after only 113 blocks out of the required 2,016. This projection also remains provisional.

The next adjustment will occur at block 973,728. Until then, three variables deserve particular attention: hashrate evolution, hashprice, and BTC price. The 5.92% increase confirms that competition intensifies on the network. But it does not prejudge future miner profitability. This will mainly depend on their ability to maintain sufficient income against energy and equipment costs that do not automatically decrease with market fluctuations.