Bitcoin Plunges, OpenAI Disappoints: Double Warning for Markets

Bitcoin brushed 80,900 dollars before bouncing back towards 82,000 dollars. At the same time, the AI sector takes another bad surprise: OpenAI communicated to its investors an annualized revenue close to 50 billion dollars for September, about 20 billion less than the previously mentioned 70 billion. The two events do not have the same origin. However, they arrive in a market where expensive oil, high rates, and gigantic expenses are starting to make investors much more demanding.

Bitcoin bounces back after falling near 81,000 dollars

The movement was fast. On Thursday, Bitcoin dropped around 80,940 dollars on some platforms, its lowest level since September 21. BTC had already broken 83,000 dollars while oil was rising a few hours earlier.

The 82,500 dollar level did not hold. Then the geopolitical situation slightly eased. Donald Trump stated that the United States would not strike Iran before the November US elections and mentioned discussions considered productive. The oil market immediately reacted. On Friday, Brent fell about 1.3% to 102.91 dollars per barrel and WTI about 1.2%, around 90.40 dollars.

Bitcoin rose back towards 82,000 dollars. The rebound remains modest compared to the previous drop. However, it shows how much the crypto market currently reacts to news from oil, Iran, and US rates.

The relationship is indirect. More expensive oil can feed inflation expectations. More persistent inflation reduces the chances of seeing the Federal Reserve quickly ease its monetary policy. Bond yields remain high, making non-yielding assets like Bitcoin relatively less attractive to some investors.

US bonds have precisely experienced a volatile week. The 30-year yield reached 5.73%, its highest level in about 24 years. The 10-year rate also surpassed 5.3%. Bitcoin thus finds itself caught between several forces. The crypto market wants to rebound. The macroeconomy complicates the task.

Bitcoin ETFs add another pressure on the market

The drop towards 81,000 dollars is not only from oil. US Bitcoin ETFs also sent a bad signal this week. On Wednesday, 484.9 million dollars flowed out of spot Bitcoin ETFs, their largest withdrawal day since June.

BlackRock accounted for 207.7 million dollars of outflows. Fidelity lost 105.1 million. ARK 21Shares recorded 101.7 million more withdrawals. Together, these funds represent over 414 million dollars. The move mainly erased very quickly the good start of the month. The first four sessions of October had brought about 321.6 million dollars to Bitcoin ETFs.

One day was enough to bring the balance back into the red. This does not mean institutional investors are abandoning Bitcoin. September still recorded about 2.65 billion dollars of net inflows into US funds.

Volatility of flows is simply becoming much more visible. The market also suffered several hundred million dollars of liquidations of leveraged positions. When Bitcoin breaks an important technical level, traders who bet with borrowed money can be liquidated automatically. Their positions are sold, which momentarily adds pressure.

The same mechanism was observed when bitcoin dropped below 84,000 dollars. The rebound towards 82,000 dollars calms the game a bit. Bitcoin remains clearly below the 86,000 dollars seen a few days earlier. The recovery is thus only partial.

OpenAI drops from 70 to about 50 billion $ in annualized revenues

While bitcoin corrects, another story worries Wall Street. OpenAI informed its investors that its September annualized revenue was approaching 50 billion dollars. However, the figure had been presented around 70 billion a few days earlier.

Difference: about 20 billion. However, it would be misleading to say that OpenAI has just “lost” 20 billion dollars of revenue. The problem mainly comes from the way revenues are calculated.

The 50 billion figure notably excludes certain sales made via cloud partners such as Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud. OpenAI reportedly adopted this method to make its figures more comparable to those of its competitor Anthropic.

The comparison remains imperfect. Anthropic includes more sales made via its cloud partners in some presentations of its revenues. About half of its activity would go through these partners.

The annualized revenue itself also requires a small explanation. It does not correspond to the actual revenue collected over twelve months. A company usually takes its revenues for a month and multiplies them by twelve. If it generates 4 billion dollars in September, it can thus present an annualized pace close to 48 billion.

For a company growing as fast as OpenAI, the result can change significantly from one month to another. OpenAI went from about 6 billion dollars of revenues in 2024 to nearly 20 billion on an annualized basis at the start of 2026. Even 50 billion remains therefore a considerable figure. But the market no longer only looks at growth. It looks at how much that growth costs.

Bitcoin and AI discover the cost of expensive money

This is where the two stories converge. Not because Bitcoin directly depends on OpenAI’s revenues. But because Bitcoin, Nvidia, OpenAI, and other major tech bets currently operate in the same financial environment.

Money is more expensive. US bonds offer yields unseen in decades. Oil still exceeds 100 dollars. AI’s financing needs are now counted in hundreds of billions.

At the end of September, the company was still seeking at least 30 billion dollars from investors with a targeted valuation around 1,400 billion. At this level, a gap of 20 billion in the presentation of annualized revenue naturally attracts attention.

Investors want to understand what they are paying for. The market reacted quite sharply on Thursday. Nvidia, Oracle, AMD, Broadcom, CoreWeave, and several other AI-exposed stocks fell. Indeed, worries about tech spending joined concerns related to bond yields and oil.

Friday brings some calm. Oil is falling. Tech futures rise slightly. Bitcoin rebounds towards 82,000 dollars. However, nothing completely erases the questions from the day before. OpenAI continues to grow very fast, but its capital needs remain huge.

Bitcoin retains significant institutional demand, but its ETFs can now lose nearly half a billion dollars in a single session. The two markets do not tell the same story. They just remind something investors had almost forgotten during euphoric phases: when rates rise and billions become harder to obtain, growth alone is no longer enough. Figures must also be explained. And this week, both OpenAI and Bitcoin had to do that.