Bitcoin races towards $115,000, but traders fear a trap

The latest US inflation data breathes new life into bitcoin. However, analysts remain divided on the short-term trajectory. The flagship crypto flirts with $115,000 as speculation about a Fed rate cut intensifies. Could a new correction precede the long-awaited surge?

US inflation boosts hopes for a Bitcoin rise

Bitcoin investors had cause to celebrate Thursday morning. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August came in line with expectations at 2.5% year-over-year.

This data, coupled with the marked slowdown in the Producer Price Index the day before, confirms the downward trend in inflation across the Atlantic.

The real catalyst, however, comes from the labor market. Initial jobless claims jumped to 263,000, compared to 235,000 expected. This level is the highest since October 2021, fueling concerns about the health of the US labor market.

This combination of data significantly strengthens expectations for monetary easing. Markets now anticipate a 75 basis points cut in interest rates by the end of the year. Even more impressive: the probability of a 0.5% cut at the September 17 meeting now reaches 11%.

For bitcoin, these prospects are particularly favorable. The flagship crypto traditionally benefits from accommodative monetary policies, which push investors toward alternative assets. The crossing of the symbolic $114,000 threshold illustrates this dynamic, with bitcoin reaching its highest levels in three weeks.

Analysts divided between euphoria and tactical caution

Despite this remarkable performance, analysts remain divided on bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. Optimists see this rebound as a prelude to an assault on $115,000 and beyond. The flip from $113,500 resistance to support is a major technical signal for them.

” Inflation isn’t as high as expected; a rate cut is expected later this month. “, summarizes popular trader Jelle in an X post. This reading suggests bitcoin could continue its climb, supported by improved macroeconomic conditions.

Other voices are more cautious. Analyst Trader Skew anticipates a “liquidation before a rise,” pointing to the appearance of 2,000 BTC liquidity in order books. This technical setup could trap long positions entered en masse after the inflation data release.

Recent history also argues for caution. Ted Pillows observes a recurring pattern:

During the last three CPI data releases, bitcoin rose before the CPI data was published and dropped immediately after the data release.

This technical analysis suggests a correction could occur despite the prevailing optimism.

This bitcoin volatility occurs in a particular geopolitical context. Michael Saylor, an iconic figure of institutional adoption, is intensifying his campaign to convince Washington to massively accumulate bitcoin reserves.

Congress is moreover examining a proposal requiring the Treasury to deliver a feasibility report on a strategic reserve within 90 days. Together, these elements feed the “Bitcoin strategic asset” narrative, likely to strengthen mid-term demand, even though the short term remains subject to liquidity bumps.