Bitcoin Rebounds Above $76k Without Confirming A New Cycle

Back to around 76,000 dollars, bitcoin rekindles the hypothesis of a bullish recovery, without dispelling doubts about the strength of the rebound. On-chain data improves, flows recover, but several confirmation markers remain out of reach. Behind the return of optimism, one question dominates: is the market really restarting, or is it just a simple respite?

The bitcoin rebound opens a bullish window again

Bitcoin’s return to around 76,000 dollars has revived the idea of a more solid market, without however being enough to confirm a durable reversal. This progression still fits into an emerging recovery phase, where volatility continues to remind of the fragility of the movement.

Glassnode indicates that BTC now evolves within a relatively open range between 72,000 and 82,000 dollars, where on-chain resistance appears weaker than in previous weeks.

This improvement is also due to bitcoin’s exit from an important accumulation corridor. The market indeed passed through a dense zone between 59,000 and 72,000 dollars, highlighted by the distribution of realized price of UTXOs. In short, BTC has left a block where many investors had accumulated their positions, which opens, in the short term, a smoother progression zone as long as momentum holds.

• The share of bitcoin supply in profit rose to around 60 %, a level that Glassnode associates with the early phases of recovery after a bear market. The company adds that a sustained passage above 75 % would constitute a “signal confirming the entry into an emerging bullish phase”;

• Selling pressure remains significant among short-term holders. Thus, when bitcoin surpassed 74,000 dollars, realized profits reached 18.4 million dollars per hour;

• Glassnode estimates that if the market absorbs this wave of profit-taking and holds 70,000 dollars as support, an extension towards 78,000 to 82,000 dollars becomes more likely;

• The market sends signals of recovery, but it has not yet produced full validation of a bullish impulse.

Confirmation thresholds remain out of reach

Price improvement alone is not enough to validate a durable shift. Indeed, the underlying structure remains cautious on daily and weekly timeframes, with a succession of “lower highs and lower lows”.

To invalidate this reading, bitcoin would need to reclaim its previous descending high near 97,855 dollars and hold there. This high also corresponds to the Fibonacci golden zone, between 0.5 and 0.618, a space closely watched by traders when a trend reversal is at stake.

The cycle signal points in the same direction. Thus, CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle indicator remains at -0.72, compared to -1 earlier this month. Full confirmation of a bull market would require a return above 1, while a first advanced marker would be crossing the 365-day bull-bear moving average, currently at -0.23.

Meanwhile, the note from Glassnode describes a recovery first supported by the spot market. US ETF flows have recovered over a month, positioning on CME contracts remains contained, and the current dynamic seems to come more from spot demand than from excess leverage.

The bitcoin rebound thus rekindles a bullish scenario, without removing all doubts about its strength. Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $164M in outflows, proof that part of the market remains cautious. The signal improves, conviction still awaits its true confirmation.