Bitcoin Rebounds on Ceasefire, But $700M Leverage Wipeout Leaves Market Shell-Shocked

Bitcoin has climbed back above $105,000 after briefly dipping below $100,000 over the weekend. The decline followed news of US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, sparking market panic. The sell-off not only dragged prices down but also saw open interest fall, as traders quickly cut risk.

Traders Cut Risk On Bitcoin As Uncertainty Lingers

The global tension sent shockwaves through the crypto space, with Bitcoin dipping to levels not seen in more than a month. But soon after, a ceasefire announcement from US President Donald Trump helped settle nerves. That news brought some calm, and Bitcoin recovered quickly, regaining lost ground.

Despite the bounce, the market hasn’t fully settled. Derivatives traders, in particular, are still holding back. The weekend drop triggered over $700 million in forced liquidations, as positions were closed out during the sharp price swing.

Vetle Lunde, a market analyst at K33 Research, told Decrypt that recent trading activity shows a clear retreat from risk, following the weekend’s volatility. He outlined several key shifts in the Bitcoin derivatives market:

• Over 17,000 BTC in perpetual futures contracts were closed within a single day of trading.
• It was the steepest one-day drop in open interest since the global fallout from the yen crash.
• Open interest has now fallen below 260,000 BTC—the lowest total seen in several weeks
• Lunde said this reflects a widespread pullback from leveraged and high-risk positions.
• He compared current conditions to April, when similar caution led to a flat and steady price range.

Overall sentiment remains cautious, with the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index sitting at 42—a neutral reading that still leans slightly toward fear, reflecting the market’s ongoing uncertainty. 

Likewise, data from Deribit shows the Bitcoin Volatility Index has slipped to 38.39, indicating a relatively calm market. This further suggests that traders are still holding back, waiting for a clearer direction.

All Eyes on June 27 Expiry

Attention is now turning to the upcoming expiry of Bitcoin options contracts. On Friday, 27 June, more than 141,000 contracts will expire on Deribit.

These contracts have a notional value of over $14 billion and account for more than 40% of all open Bitcoin options on the platform. Out of the total, about 82,000 are call options—which profit if the price goes up—while the rest are puts, placed by traders expecting a drop.

Each contract is tied to one Bitcoin, making this one of the largest expiry events in recent months. The outcome could steer market direction depending on how traders position themselves in the lead-up.

At the moment, most are betting that Bitcoin will stay within a narrow band. The general view is that the price is unlikely to swing wildly either way. There’s some leaning toward a modest increase, but no strong conviction on a big breakout.

Optimism Growing Beyond the Short Term

Though the short-term mood remains cautious, Wintermute analysts have noticed growing optimism around Bitcoin options set to expire in July and September. That trend hints at growing belief that the current market tension may start to ease in the coming months.

Institutional money has also continued to support Bitcoin. Data from Glassnode shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States recorded net inflows of more than 11,600 BTC last week.

This marks the second consecutive week of positive flows, showing steady demand from large investors. On 23 June 2025, ETFs still saw an inflow of around 598 BTC, despite rising global tensions. 

While the figure was modest, there were no significant outflows, which suggests ongoing confidence even in uncertain conditions.

Adding to the sentiment shift, crypto analyst Ted Pillow observed that every major wave of fear or uncertainty has historically marked a Bitcoin price bottom.

He pointed to past events such as the FTX collapse, Japan’s trading policy changes, tariff threats under President Trump and, more recently, the U.S. entering the Iranian conflict.  According to his chart data, Bitcoin tends to dip during such periods but quickly finds strong support and rallies. With signs of de-escalation now emerging, Pillow suggests that the bottom may already be in—or very close.