Bitcoin: Scarcity Deepens With Every Block Mined

As bitcoin enters a new phase of maturity, an unexpected phenomenon is redefining its scarcity: every day, more BTC become inactive for ten years or more than new coins are mined. A silent but consequential reversal.

A Historic Shift in Bitcoin’s Supply Dynamics

Bitcoin has just reached a symbolic and decisive milestone. Since the April 2024 halving, more BTC have become old each day. In other words, they have remained unmoved for over ten years. This number now exceeds the amount of new coins created daily.

This shift, long anticipated but never observed until now, reshuffles the cards of scarcity in the crypto universe.

According to data published on June 18 by Fidelity Digital Assets, the daily average of BTC joining this “dormant supply” now reaches 566 coins. By comparison, the Bitcoin network produces only 450 per day since its last halving. In other words, the past outweighs the future. And this past is silent.

This phenomenon cannot be ignored. Whether these bitcoins are truly lost or simply held out of conviction, their immobility creates an invisible contraction effect on the real supply. In a market where the perception of scarcity is almost as powerful as scarcity itself, this type of signal becomes strategic.

Ghosts of the Past: Between Loss and Conviction

Among these millions of BTC frozen in time, some are probably inaccessible forever. The earliest mined bitcoins, often without great security precautions, could have been lost along with hard drives or forgotten private keys. But the analysis doesn’t stop there.

More than 3.4 million BTC, about 17% of the total supply, have been dormant for over a decade. This figure includes the legendary coins of Satoshi Nakamoto himself, never moved, untouched relics of Bitcoin’s founding genome. This raises a dizzying question: what is the actual active supply of bitcoin today?

Bitcoin’s dormant supply acts like a deep freeze. It does not feed exchanges, does not respond to speculative movements, and does not react to political crises. It is, so to speak, off-market. And that is where its strength lies. Fidelity notes that fewer than 3% of days since 2019 have recorded a decline in this dormant supply. It is consolidating, slowly, methodically.

But beware of idealizing this inertia. Since the 2024 U.S. elections, the report shows that these long-term holders have been slightly more inclined to sell. The proportion of days with a decrease in the old supply has quadrupled compared to the historical average. Even the strongest convictions can waver.

Scarcity Reinvented at the Time of ETFs and Institutional Players

As new bitcoin issuance inexorably slows, the tightening of the active supply could create unprecedented upward pressure. In the background, publicly traded companies are accumulating. As of June 8, 27 public companies collectively held over 800,000 BTC, strengthening the camp of strong hands. A trend that is only just beginning.

If the current momentum continues, the dormant supply could reach 30% of all bitcoins in circulation by 2035. This is not only a historical data point: it is a profound structural change in market participants’ behavior. Bitcoin is becoming, slowly but surely, more a reserve asset than a transactional asset. But scarcity is not everything.

Fidelity reminds us that prices respond to a subtle balance between supply, demand, and narrative. The introduction of new financial products (ETFs, institutional custody services, banking integrations) could ignite growing demand, especially if the actually accessible supply continues to dwindle.